The scope of this report is intentionally scattered, looking at some very low-tech areas where energy efficiency gains are possible through scale of the markets and some high-tech sectors that are just now coming online. Includes forecasts through 2015
BCC Research predicts that the global market for energy-efficient technologies will grow at an aggregated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2% for the 5-year forecast period of 2010-2015, from $200 billion in 2010 to $311.7 billion by 2015, compared to $331 billion for renewable energy.
The global market for installations and retrofitting of combined heat and power was $55 billion in 2009, and BCC Research estimates annual growth of 9.1% for 2010, for a total of $60 billion. We expects the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to be 8.4% through 2015, reaching a total of $90 billion.
The global market for waste-to-energy installations and retrofitting is $22.3 billion in 2010. BCC forecasts a 6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next 5 years to reach almost $30 billion by 2015.
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
BCC Research’s goal in conducting this study was to evaluate the progress of several loosely connected technology sectors contributing significantly to the achievement of energy gains and to assess their potential over a 5-year period from 2010 to 2015.
With one exception (combined heat and power), these sectors are well-studied, but are stove piped to the extent that cross-comparisons are difficult and gauging their relevance to commercial and policy decisions almost impossible. We were interested in understanding the role these sectors may play in reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions. One reason for our interest lies in the companion to this report published in September 2010, titled “Global Markets for Renewable Energy.” The report made it clear that renewable energy sources, while a valuable tool in addressing both emissions and energy consumption, are in no way an adequate solution.
REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
PV technology dates back to the 1950s and the advent of the space program, but the concerted effort to develop this technology for industry and consumer use began during the oil embargoes of the 1970s. The eventual stabilization of oil prices had a dampening effect on investment, tax credits, and government funding for research and development.
Despite these challenges, the development of PV and its materials continued and, in the late 1990s, R&D funding, cost-shared programs, and industry activity once again increased. The growth rate of this technology has been exceptionally high reaching annual growth rates of 30% to 40% and higher over the past two decades.
In the first decade of the 21st century, oil prices surged as demand rose at unprecedented rates. PV once again took the spotlight as an emerging technology. Companies in the PV business have focused on reaching grid parity—the meeting of cost for fossil fuel and solar energy—as a way to broaden the scope of PV. Nations and individual states began to offer serious incentives such as tariffs and tax credits for solar customers. Consequently, we were interested in looking at this industry once again to chart its potential.
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