Ken Research declared the recent publication on “Consumer payments country snapshot: China 2016” which offers insights on the consumer payments market in China, considering payment cards, online payments, P2P payments, and newer payment technologies such as mobile wallets and contactless. Further it includes the shrewd examination of the main regulatory players in the Chinese market and analyzes the consumer attitudes to financial services by life stage and the major payment card types in terms of both card holding and usage. Moreover, publication identifies the major competitors in card issuing and how their positions in the market have evolved over the last five years. This publication helps in exploring the online payment market in China by merchant type and payment tool, as well as providing a five-year forecast for the development of the market.
Trends in China’s Macro economy
China’s has developed over the 2000s which slowed down post 2013. The driving force behind the development was investment, so understanding the slowdown simply relies on understanding what sustained investment post 2013. The credit policy promoting heavy industrialisation which also had negatives consequences with positives. Going forward, China needs to focus on creating the right incentives for banks to make loans to small businesses.
Financial reforms in China must focus on green banking. Only when such practice of green banking is properly reformed will commercial banks have incentives to make loans to small and productive businesses. In addition, a rapid ramping-up of China’s corporate debts and local government debts as a result of the preferential credit policy toward heavy industries has now reached a level that deems unsustainable. Therefore, China’s macro economy faces twin problems:
- low consumption and income growth
- Overcapacity of heavy industries with rising debt risks.
How these problems are resolved might have profound policy implications. Because both problems arose from a preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industrialisation since the late 1990s, an effective policy would aim at reducing the preferential credit access given to large firms and especially those in heavy industries. In brief, financial reforms geared towards abolishing such a distortion would go a long way toward making both short-term and long-term loans function efficiently and put the economy on a more balanced path.\
China Economic Outlook
Retail sales, industrial production and investment had gone down in 2015 from the year 2014. Unemployment and inflation rate is stagnant in the same period. While growth momentum in 2016 remained strong in Quarter4, as suggested by themanufacturing PMI for November, all eyes are on the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), expected to be held in mid-December. The CEWC will set the tone of the economy and policy for next year. The CEWC will also establish the economic targets for 2017, though they will not be disclosed until the National People’s Congress in March. The growth target is expected to be maintained at the current range of between 6.5% and 7.0%, while monetary and fiscal policies will likely remain accommodative. In the political arena, China’s authorities stated that they are intensely concerned after President-elect Donald Trump questioned the One-China policy, which has been the cornerstone of China-U.S. relations since the 70s. This incident has added fuel to an already complicated political relationship between China and Trump.
China represents a develop payment card market in Asia, with more than 5 billion payment cards in issue. Notwithstanding a high card-per-client proportion China is anticipated to see mellow development in both card numbers and the estimation of transactions, as mobile has turned into the payment mechanism of decision in the country. China UnionPay is the quickest-growing card scheme in China, claiming a more than 90% market share in 2015.
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Ankur Gupta, Head Marketing & Communicationsquery@kenresearch.com