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The Future of the Generics Industry: Opportunities, threats and key trends

Press Release   •   Oct 12, 2010 16:26 IST

Driven by rising demand, patent expiries and pharmaceutical cost-containment policies, generic sales have risen consistently at rates in excess of the pharmaceutical industry average over the past decade. Coupled with changes in the geographic and therapeutic make-up of the sector, this has triggered a period of rapid restructuring within the generics industry. Teva and Sandoz have consolidated their positions at the head of the generic company sales rankings; national and regional businesses have emerged as major forces in emerging generic markets; while new players – including multinationals – have begun to pursue footholds in the generics sector.

Demand for generics will continue to increase rapidly during the next five years. Major patent expiries will present generic manufacturers with substantial new targets – including the world’s best-selling pharmaceutical brand, Lipitor. Sales of branded copies will rise at double-digit rates in many developing countries, while unbranded, bioequivalent follow-on products will be prescribed, dispensed and consumed more widely in some of the world’s biggest markets. Governments and third-party payers will adopt more robust pro-generic policies in a bid to limit pharmaceutical spending. These will include measures designed to encourage the use of biosimilars, which will help to rein in costs associated with the reimbursement of expensive biotech drugs.

While demand for generics will remain strong, pressure on prices in the sector will intensify as competition heats up, and as payers step up their efforts to limit reimbursement spending. Generic manufacturers will also have to overcome barriers to market entry posed by intellectual property laws, regulatory frameworks and defensive strategies employed by originator companies. Levels of brand affinity that persist among physicians, pharmacists and patients will also act as a constraint on rates at which generics are prescribed, dispensed and consumed.

With volume-based growth set to outweigh constraints on price, the generics market will continue to increase rapidly in value during the next five years. The operating environment in the sector will become increasingly difficult for many small and mid-sized players, however. Problems faced by these companies, the expansion of established market leaders and the entry of more new players will combine to drive further significant restructuring in the generics sector.

Key Features of this report

• Analysis of the size, structure and recent growth of the global generics market, and of the industry it supports.
• Case studies focusing on individual generic businesses and key generic markets.
• Identification and detailed discussion of key generic industry drivers and constraints.
• Appraisal of the impact individual drivers and constraints will have on the market to 2015.
• Forecasts outlining the anticipated size and structure of the generics market in 2015, assessing future prospects for individual generic businesses and identifying potential major new entrants in the sector.

Key Benefits of this report

• Quantify the size and structure of current opportunities in the generics market and the positions held by key players in the sector.
• Identify the main factors acting as drivers and constraints on generic market growth, and gauge their likely impact on the structure of the industry.
• Assess the timing and extent of new opportunities that patent expiries will present for generic manufacturers during the next five years.
• Track the development of pro-generic healthcare policies implemented in key markets, and their likely impact on the industry.
• Understand the strategies being employed by originator companies to block or delay the arrival of generic competition, and how future regulatory intervention might affect their ability to defend patent-expired brands.
• Learn how Teva and Sandoz intend to build on their leadership positions in the generics industry; why second-tier generic businesses are so exposed as acquisition targets; and which pharmaceutical majors are most likely to emerge as major players in the generics sector.

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