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Trevor Greethams Investeringsklocka mars: Föredrar aktier framför råvaror

Nyheter   •   2014-03-28 10:58 CET

Sedan början av året har råvaror utvecklats bättre än aktier. Vi förväntar oss att den amerikanska ekonomin återhämtar sig under andra kvartalet efter den svaga utveckling som orsakades av vädret, vilket gynnar den amerikanska och de globala aktiemarknaderna. Samtidigt kommer sannolikt den starka, utbudsstyrda utvecklingen för råvaror att dämpas. Vi är oroade över avmattningen i Kina, men vi ser paralleller till 1990-talet när aktier på utvecklade marknader steg trots tillfälliga orosmoln på tillväxtmarknaderna.

Investeringsklockan befinner sig i det aktievänliga ”återhämtningsläget”. Vi behåller vår långvariga inriktning på aktier snarare än obligationer. Vi förväntar oss att den amerikanska dollarn kommer att vara stark och tror på en uppgång för obligationer under de kommande månaderna.

NYCKELTAL I FOKUS

Tillväxt

- Våra nyckeltal för den globala tillväxten har fallit från de högsta nivåerna, främst mot bakgrund av en svag utveckling i USA som förvärrades av det kalla vädret.

- Vi förväntar oss dock att ekonomiska data kommer att återhämta sig under andra kvartalet, i takt med att de allvarliga störningarna i försörjningskedjan åtgärdas och den tillbakapressade efterfrågan tillfredsställs.

 Inflation

- Det globala inflationstrycket är dämpat och en långvarig svag ekonomisk utveckling skulle utlösa ytterligare stimulansåtgärder från centralbankerna i G4-länderna.

- Dagens situation påminner om 1990-talet när tillväxtmarknaderna genomgick en rad kriser, men de stora centralbankerna behöll en relativt expansiv inställning.

AKTUELL FÖRDELNING AV TILLGÅNGAR

- Vi behåller vår starka övervikt i amerikanska aktier och förväntar oss att eventuella effekter av en nedtrappning av de kvantitativa lättnaderna uppvägs av att de budgetpolitiska problemen dämpas. Våra fonder har också en övervikt i japanska aktier, en position som stärks av det förväntade statliga stödet inför momshöjningen i april.


- Överskottskapacitet, den starka dollarn och långsammare trendtillväxt i Kina är dämpande strukturella faktorer för råvaror. Vi har fortsatt vår största undervikt i guld. Vi är fortsatt avvaktande till statsobligationer mot bakgrund av den amerikanska centralbankens ökade nedtrappning av de kvantitativa lättnaderna och avkastningen är fortfarande låg.


 

Sedan början av året har råvaror utvecklats bättre än aktier. Vi förväntar oss att den amerikanska ekonomin återhämtar sig under andra kvartalet efter den svaga utveckling som orsakades av vädret, vilket gynnar den amerikanska och de globala aktiemarknaderna. Samtidigt kommer sannolikt den starka, utbudsstyrda utvecklingen för råvaror att dämpas.

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Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock March: Prefer stocks to commodities

Nyheter   •   2014-03-27 15:56 CET

Commodities have outperformed stocks since the start of the year. We expect the US economy to bounce back from weather-induced weakness in Q2 to the benefit of US and global equity markets, while supply-induced strength in commodities is likely to fade. We are concerned about the slowdown in China but we see a parallel with the 1990s when developed equities climbed a wall of emerging market worry.

The Investment Clock is in equity-friendly Recovery mode. We maintain our long-held preference for stocks over bonds. We expect to see US dollar strength and a rise in bond yields over the next few months.

LEAD INDICATORS IN FOCUS

Growth
- Our global growth scorecard has come off its highs, primarily due to softness in the US that was made worse by the cold weather episode.
- However, we expect economic data to bounce back in Q2 as a severely disrupted supply chain gets back to work and pent-up demand is satisfied.

Inflation
- Global inflation pressures are muted and any sustained economic weakness will trigger further stimulus from G4 central banks.

-Today is reminiscent of the 1990s when emerging markets saw a series of crises but the big central banks maintained a relatively easy stance.

CURRENT ASSET ALLOCATION POSITIONING
- We maintain our strong overweight position in US equities and expect any QE tapering impact to be offset by easing fiscal headwinds. Our funds are also overweight Japanese equities, buoyed by the level of expected government support ahead of April’s sales tax increase.
- Excess capacity, dollar strength and slower trend growth in China are structural headwinds for commodities; gold remains our largest underweight. We remain cautious on government bonds because of the Fed’s increased QE tapering and yields are still low.

Commodities have outperformed stocks since the start of the year. We expect the US economy to bounce back from weather-induced weakness in Q2 to the benefit of US and global equity markets, while supply-induced strength in commodities is likely to fade. We are concerned about the slowdown in China but we see a parallel with the 1990s when developed equities climbed a wall of emerging market worry.

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Fidelity Worldwide Investment wins prestigious awards in Norway and Finland

Pressmeddelanden   •   2014-02-28 10:12 CET

Stockholm, 28 February 2014– At the Morningstar awards ceremonies in Helsinki and Oslo earlier this week, it was announced that Fidelity Worldwide Investment won several awards including the prestigious house awards. The house awards recognize fund management companies that have delivered sustained outperformance on a risk-adjusted basis across their fund line-ups. In addition, the company also received several fund awards in the emerging markets and US equities categories. The category winners recognize those funds that have added the most value over the longer term. The methodology emphasizes the one-year period, but funds must also have delivered strong three- and five-year risk-adjusted returns and have been in the top half of their category in at
least three of the past five calendar years. – We are extremely proud and grateful for these awards. It’s important and encouraging that our active management approach has delivered value to our investors, says Petter Edwinson, Head of Marketing and Business Development at Fidelity. Below is the list of Morningstar awards won by Fidelity in the Nordics:

Norway

  • Best Fund House - Equity 
  • Best Fund House - Fixed Income
  • Best Fund House - Multi Asset 
  • Best Global Emerging Markets Equity Fund - FF Emerging Markets Fund A USD

Finland

  • Best Fund House - Larger Equity
  • Best Fund House - Multi Asset 
  • Best Global Emerging Markets Equity Fund - FF Emerging Markets Fund A USD
  • Best US Equity Fund - FF America Fund A Acc USD

For further details, please contact Petter Edwinson, Head of Marketing and Business Development, at +46 (0)8 505 257 03.

About Fidelity Worldwide Investment
Fidelity Worldwide Investment is a global leader in asset management, providing investment
products and services to individuals and institutions in the UK, continental
Europe, the Middle East and Asia Pacific. Established in 1969, the company has
over 6,000 staff in 24 countries and manages assets of US$270.4 billion. The
company’s fund managers receive research from one of the largest proprietary
research teams, based in 12 countries around the world. Fidelity Worldwide
Investment is an independent and privately owned asset management company.

Data as at 31 December 2013

Stockholm, 28 February 2014 – At the Morningstar awards ceremonies in Helsinki and Oslo earlier this week, it was announced that Fidelity Worldwide Investment won several awards including the prestigious house awards. The house awards recognize fund management companies that have delivered sustained outperformance on a risk-adjusted basis across their fund line-ups.

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Emerging market troubles

Nyheter   •   2014-02-24 14:33 CET

Slower Chinese growth and the gradual unwinding of Fed QE is causing the most pronounced period of emerging market underperformance since the mid-1990s. We think the spill over into developed markets will be short-lived with emerging market policy makers taking action to restore confidence.

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Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock december: The 1990s Bull Market Revisited

Nyheter   •   2014-01-10 11:13 CET

The Investment Clock is in the equity-friendly ‘Recovery’ mode. With China playing the
disinflationary role of Japan in the 1990s, the positive backdrop for developed market stockmarkets could last for years. We are overweight US and Japanese equities, markets that tend to benefit
from US dollar strength. We are underweight the emerging markets, commodities, bonds and interest rate-sensitive equity sectors. Physical real estate should continue to offer solid returns.

LEAD INDICATORS IN FOCUS

Growth
Global growth lead indicators remain strong and suggest the benign environment will remain in place.

Inflation
Inflation pressures remain very low, with our inflation scorecard indicator pointing downwards in 22 of the last 24 months.

The US Federal Reserve has started to taper its quantitative easing programme
but it is worth noting that Chairman Bernanke emphasised this was not meant to
be a tightening move and that interest rates would remain low for a very long
time if inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.

CURRENT ASSET ALLOCATION POSITIONING
We have been significantly overweight equities for more than a year. With monetary policy loose and
inflation pressures minimal, we expect the positive backdrop to continue with growth picking up as US fiscal drag lifts.

We deepened our underweight in commodities this month. Excess capacity, US dollar
strength and slower trend growth in China are structural headwinds. Since
February 2013, our largest underweight has been gold.

Trevor Greetham joined Fidelity in January 2006. He is Director of Asset Allocation and in addition to managing funds, Trevor is a member of Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Group. Prior to joining Fidelity,
he spent ten years at Merrill Lynch, where he was Director of Asset Allocation. Trevor began his career with UK life insurer Provident Mutual.
He holds an MA in Mathematics from Cambridge University and is a qualified actuary.

 

 

This document is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private
investors
. It must not be reproduced or circulated without prior permission. This communication is not directed at, and must not be acted upon by persons inside the United States and is otherwise only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. Fidelity/ Fidelity International means FIL Limited, and its subsidiary companies.  Unless otherwise stated, all views are those of the Fidelity organisation.  Investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have
already been acted upon by Fidelity. The research and analysis used in this material is gathered by Fidelity for its use as an Investment Manager and may have already been acted upon for its own
purposes. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only. Fidelity only offers information on its own products and services and does not provide investment
advice based on individual circumstances. Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment and the Fidelity Worldwide Investment and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount invested. Fidelity’s legal representative in Switzerland is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich. Paying agent for Switzerland is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich. Malta: Growth Investments Limited is licensed by the MFSA. Fidelity Funds is promoted in Malta by Growth Investments Ltd in terms of the EU UCITS Directive and Legal
Notices 207 ad 309 of 2004.  The Fund is regulated in Luxembourg by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. Issued by FIL Investments International (registered in England and Wales), authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. IC13/184

The Investment Clock is in the equity-friendly ‘Recovery’ mode. With China playing the disinflationary role of Japan in the 1990s, the positive backdrop for developed market stockmarkets could last for years. We are overweight US and Japanese equities, markets that tend to benefit from US dollar strength.

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Trevor Greethams investeringsklocka december: Tillbaka till 1990-talets positiva marknad

Nyheter   •   2014-01-10 10:55 CET

Investeringsklockan befinner sig i det aktievänliga ”återhämtningsläget”. Kina har nu den deflationsroll som Japan hade under 1990-talet och den positiva situationen på aktiemarknaderna i utvecklade länder kan kvarstå under många år. Vi har en övervikt i amerikanska och japanska aktier, marknader som tenderar att gynnas av en stark dollar.

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Market Outlook 2014

Pressmeddelanden   •   2013-12-23 14:25 CET

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Marknadsutsikt 2014

Pressmeddelanden   •   2013-12-23 14:12 CET

Inflationen och den nominella ekonomiska tillväxten kommer troligtvis att förbli låg, vilket gör att det inte finns någon anledning för stora räntehöjningar under 2014. Det kommer sannolikt att bli ett händelserikt år på obligationsmarkaden. Även om avkastningen är låg generellt, är detta en naturlig återspegling av ett utmanande marknadsläge.

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Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock October: The Fed keeps on printing

Nyheter   •   2013-10-28 17:24 CET

The economic upswing that began in the summer of 2012 has lasted more than a year and there’s a very good chance it lasts well into 2014. Inflation pressures are muted and no major central bank is likely to tighten policy for at least six months.

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Three major challenges for the FED

Nyheter   •   2013-10-25 10:40 CEST

In December this year the Federal Reserve celebrates the 100th anniversary of the signing of the Federal Reserve Act, and early next year Janet Yellen will become the 15th Chairman of the central bank. She will face some formidable challenges over the next few years, but three broad themes stand out.

Kontaktpersoner 1 kontaktperson

  • Presskontakt
  • Senior Marketing Manager
  • maria.zachrisson@fil.com
  • +46 (0)8 505 257 05
  • +46 (0)8 505 257 00

Om Fidelity Worldwide Investment

The currency of investing

Fidelity Worldwide Investment is one of the largest independent mutual fund managers. We have offices in 25 countries around the world and manage investments worth more than US$215 bn.
Fidelity was founded in 1969 and has over over 5 500 employees. We have over 7 million cients - both institutions and larger companies, but also private clients. Since 1996 we have had a presence and supported clients in the Nordic region.
We manage more than 740 funds and with more than 280 analysts and portfolio managers across the globe, we have a unique loval presence but also global expertise. Fidelity is a privately owned company.

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