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Uppdatering om taktisk tillgångsallokering av Fidelity Solutions januari-februari 2015: Positionering för lägre inflation

Nyheter   •   Mar 05, 2015 11:45 CET

Inflationen ligger på den lägsta nivån sedan finanskrisen och kommer sannolikt att falla ytterligare under kommande månader. Hittills i år har tretton centralbanker meddelat att de inför åtgärder och med en tillväxt som ligger över trendnivån är deflationen positiv för både aktier och obligationer.

Tactical Asset Allocation Update from Fidelity Solutions January-February 2015: Positioning for lower inflation

Nyheter   •   Mar 04, 2015 17:26 CET

Inflation is at its lowest since the financial crisis, likely to fall further in coming months. Thirteen central banks have announced measures so far this year, and with growth above trend, this disinflationary back-drop is good news for both stocks and bonds.

Trevor Greethams Investeringsklocka december: Prisfallet på olja påminner om 1990-talet

Trevor Greethams Investeringsklocka december: Prisfallet på olja påminner om 1990-talet

Nyheter   •   Jan 14, 2015 16:44 CET

Dollarn är stark, oljepriset faller och tillväxtmarknadernas valutor står under hårt tryck – ändå har de amerikanska aktieindexen slagit nya rekord. Vi ser starka paralleller med den fallande inflationen under 1990-talet, och våra taktiska positioner med positiv syn på amerikanska aktier och negativ syn på känsliga råvaror har lönat sig.

Trevor Greethamns Clockwise December: Oil’s plunge recalls the late 1990s

Trevor Greethamns Clockwise December: Oil’s plunge recalls the late 1990s

Nyheter   •   Jan 09, 2015 16:15 CET

The US dollar is strong, the oil price is falling and emerging market currencies are under pressure, yet US equity indices have been making new all-time highs. We see strong parallels with the disinflationary 1990s and our tactical positions in favour of US equities and against commodity sensitivities have been paying off.

Trevor Greetham's Clockwise update September: Strong US dollar implications

Nyheter   •   Okt 16, 2014 14:24 CEST

The outlook for global growth is positive but inflation remains mostly absent. As long as this remains the case, plentiful liquidity should support a continued bull market in stocks.

Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock december: The 1990s Bull Market Revisited

Nyheter   •   Jan 10, 2014 11:13 CET

The Investment Clock is in the equity-friendly ‘Recovery’ mode. With China playing the disinflationary role of Japan in the 1990s, the positive backdrop for developed market stockmarkets could last for years. We are overweight US and Japanese equities, markets that tend to benefit from US dollar strength.

Trevor Greethams investeringsklocka december: Tillbaka till 1990-talets positiva marknad

Trevor Greethams investeringsklocka december: Tillbaka till 1990-talets positiva marknad

Nyheter   •   Jan 10, 2014 10:55 CET

Investeringsklockan befinner sig i det aktievänliga ”återhämtningsläget”. Kina har nu den deflationsroll som Japan hade under 1990-talet och den positiva situationen på aktiemarknaderna i utvecklade länder kan kvarstå under många år. Vi har en övervikt i amerikanska och japanska aktier, marknader som tenderar att gynnas av en stark dollar.

Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock October: The Fed keeps on printing

Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock October: The Fed keeps on printing

Nyheter   •   Okt 28, 2013 17:24 CET

The economic upswing that began in the summer of 2012 has lasted more than a year and there’s a very good chance it lasts well into 2014. Inflation pressures are muted and no major central bank is likely to tighten policy for at least six months.

Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock Aug-Sep: Developed world revival

Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock Aug-Sep: Developed world revival

Nyheter   •   Sep 09, 2013 10:19 CEST

Mixed signals over the summer have evolved into a re-acceleration in global growth led by developed economies where monetary policy remains ultra-loose. This has pushed the Investment Clock towards the ‘Overheat’ phase of the economic cycle characterised historically by central bank tightening. This is bad news for bonds though a lack of actual tightening should keep stocks on a positive trend.

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock May: Disinflation is good news for stocks

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock May: Disinflation is good news for stocks

Nyheter   •   Jun 12, 2013 08:40 CEST

The last three economic upswings since the financial crisis all ended with our inflation scorecard pointing upwards and central banks, tightening policy. This one is different. Continued commodity price falls are pushing inflation lower.

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock April: Japan leads the way

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock April: Japan leads the way

Nyheter   •   Apr 29, 2013 14:57 CEST

The investment clock is in the equity-friendly ‘Recovery’ phase of the global business cycle with growth indicators positive and inflation indicators pointing downwards on the back of continued commodity price weakness.

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock March: Good Dollar Strength

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock March: Good Dollar Strength

Nyheter   •   Apr 02, 2013 14:15 CEST

Dollar strength over the last three months reflects a US economy returning to health and recognition by other economies that more forceful monetary policy is needed. Furthermore, there are renewed doubts over the euro. A recovery in growth against a backdrop of dollar strength has a very different feel to the shorter, more inflationary bursts of growth in the 2009 and 2010/11 recoveries.

Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock February: Synchronised Global Recovery

Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock February: Synchronised Global Recovery

Nyheter   •   Feb 19, 2013 07:30 CET

The Investment Clock model that guides our asset allocation decisions is in the equity-friendly ‘Recovery’ phase. As long as inflation pressures remain absent, central banks don’t even have to think about tightening policy. We expect rising commodity prices to push us into ‘Overheat’ phase at some point in 2013, but central banks are unlikely to tighten policy at the first sign of inflation.

Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock December: Upbeat about 2013

Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock December: Upbeat about 2013

Nyheter   •   Dec 18, 2012 08:15 CET

We are entering 2013 in an optimistic mood. The OECD’s lead indicator for global growth is bottoming-out. Housing market and labour market data from the US continues to come in strong with more recent Chinese data also surprising positively.

Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock November: Opportunity in Uncertainty

Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock November: Opportunity in Uncertainty

Nyheter   •   Nov 08, 2012 09:36 CET

We are increasingly hopeful of a pick up in global growth in 2013. Developments in the US should mean the next upswing will be more sustained. The Fed has committed to maintain an easy monetary policy stance long into an upturn, even if this causes inflation to overshoot. Rising US property prices should also ease financial strains.

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock October: QE3 boosts risk assets

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock October: QE3 boosts risk assets

Nyheter   •   Okt 15, 2012 08:00 CEST

The Fed announced an open ended quantitative easing program focused on housing finance. Risk assets will probably rally into 2013 as growth picks up and there could be good entry points as markets consolidate their gains.

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock September: Rally Needs Macro Support

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock September: Rally Needs Macro Support

Nyheter   •   Sep 18, 2012 07:30 CEST

Weak growth and falling inflation puts the Investment Clock in Reflation. Detailed analysis of the last few decades shows that government bonds usually do well at this stage of the business cycle as central banks cut interest rates or, latterly, make outright bond purchases as part of a quantitative easing program.

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock August 2012: More easing to come

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock August 2012: More easing to come

Nyheter   •   Aug 15, 2012 09:24 CEST

With growth weakening and inflation falling the Investment Clock is in Reflation. Stocks have responded positively as a wide range of central banks have started to ease policy. However, business confidence remains fragile and Europe’s crisis is in remission not retreat.

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock July 2012: The "M" shaped cycle

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock July 2012: The "M" shaped cycle

Nyheter   •   Jul 11, 2012 09:33 CEST

THE INVESTMENT CLOCK The Investment Clock approach generates growth and inflation readings based on past trends and the current momentum of lead indicators. These indicators are updated on a monthly basis to build an expectation of how the global economy may perform over the coming three to six months.

Trevor Greetham´s investment clock May 2012: Underweight Europe as a hedge

Trevor Greetham´s investment clock May 2012: Underweight Europe as a hedge

Nyheter   •   Maj 22, 2012 09:45 CEST

Our Investment Clock model is moving into Overheat, a phase of the cycle that is often good for risk assets. We are not bullish on the eurozone periphery or the euro. In aggregate though, global growth indicators have continued to improve and there have been some positive developments amid the gloom.