Fidelity International

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock March: Good Dollar Strength

Nyhet   •   Apr 02, 2013 14:15 CEST

Dollar strength over the last three months reflects a US economy returning to health and recognition by other economies that more forceful monetary policy is needed. Furthermore, there are renewed doubts over the euro.

A recovery in growth against a backdrop of dollar strength has a very different feel to the shorter, more inflationary bursts of growth in the 2009 and 2010/11 recoveries. Dollar strength is a headwind for commodities but muted inflation pressures should keep monetary policy loose to the benefit of stocks.


- Our global growth scorecard for February registered its highest reading in two years on improvements in business confidence and lead indicators.

The commodity price weakness has kept the global inflation scorecard in negative territory, therefore, placing the investment clock in the disinflationary ‘Recovery’ phase.

- This disinflation ‘Recovery’ phase has historically been the best time to hold stocks; stronger global growth is boosting corporate earnings, while monetary policy remains loose.

- We are hopeful that the current upswing will last throughout 2013, although the pace of expansion is likely to moderate at some point.

Our multi asset funds have a large overweight position in stocks and a small overweight position in commodities.

- We raised Japanese equity exposure to overweight in January on the back of improving earnings momentum and a firm commitment to stimulus from the newly elected government.


Trevor Greetham joined Fidelity in January 2006. He is Director of Asset Allocation and in addition to managing funds, Trevor is a member of Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Group. Prior to joining Fidelity, he spent ten years at Merrill Lynch, where he was Director of Asset Allocation. Trevor began his career with UK life insurer Provident Mutual. He holds an MA in Mathematics from Cambridge University and is a qualified actuary.



This document is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors. It must not be reproduced or circulated without prior permission. This communication is not directed at, and must not be acted upon by persons inside the United States and is otherwise only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. Fidelity/ Fidelity International means FIL Limited, and its subsidiary companies.  Unless otherwise stated, all views are those of the Fidelity organisation.  Investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity.  The research and analysis used in this material is gathered by Fidelity for its use as an Investment Manager and may have already been acted upon for its own purposes. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only. Fidelity only offers information on its own products and services and does not provide investment advice based on individual circumstances.  Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment and the Fidelity Worldwide Investment and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount invested. Fidelity’s legal representative in Switzerland is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich. Paying agent for Switzerland is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich. Malta: Growth Investments Limited is licensed by the MFSA. Fidelity Funds is promoted in Malta by Growth Investments Ltd in terms of the EU UCITS Directive and Legal Notices 207 ad 309 of 2004.  The Fund is regulated in Luxembourg by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. Issued by FIL Investments International (registered in England and Wales), authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. IC13/50