2013-04-29 14:57 The investment clock is in the equity-friendly ‘Recovery’ phase of the global business cycle with growth indicators positive and inflation indicators pointing downwards on the back of continued commodity price weakness.
Tag: trevor greetham
2013-04-02 14:15 Dollar strength over the last three months reflects a US economy returning to health and recognition by other economies that more forceful monetary policy is needed. Furthermore, there are renewed doubts over the euro. A recovery in growth against a backdrop of dollar strength has a very different feel to the shorter, more inflationary bursts of growth in the 2009 and 2010/11 recoveries.
2013-02-19 07:30 The Investment Clock model that guides our asset allocation decisions is in the equity-friendly ‘Recovery’ phase. As long as inflation pressures remain absent, central banks don’t even have to think about tightening policy. We expect rising commodity prices to push us into ‘Overheat’ phase at some point in 2013, but central banks are unlikely to tighten policy at the first sign of inflation.