Weekly economic briefing from Standard Life Investments

Global Overview
Global growth continues to gather momentum as we move through the year. That said, the world’s major economies are at very different stages in their business cycles. The US continues to see a cyclical uptick, with labour underutilisation falling and slack eroding. However, participation and productivity rates remain a worry. Japan’s consumption tax is complicating the assessment of underlying business activity. Although there are positive signs, it may take some time to return to a normalised business cycle. Data from the UK and Euro-zone suggest that policymakers may need to act, albeit in different directions, to ensure well-calibrated monetary policy. Cyclical fluctuations in emerging markets have typically been highly geared to, but more volatile than, their developed market counterparts. However, they only now look to be starting to benefit from the pickup in the developed world.

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