Global trends for 2015

What does it mean for logistics that the oil price has dropped by over 50% from June to December? The price of a barrel of oil has sunk from $110/barrel to $40/barrel. This is due to increased supply following the increased production of shale oil in the US, but there is also less demand. This means a transfer of income from oil producing countries, such as Norway, Russia and Saudi Arabia, to other countries and other consumption patterns.

Last week I attended a seminar called Världen 2015. It was hosted by Dagens industri, a Swedish business daily, where oil was discussed. It also emerged that the world economy will continue to be unsettled. For example, who could have foreseen the drop in oil prices? Positive signals include the US again shouldering the role of the world's main engine, unemployment rates are approaching the levels found before the financial crisis, and Americans are buying cars like never before. Germany, the most important economy in Europe, also shows signs of improvement, while Russia remains very shaky, for obvious reasons.

However, there is one sector that seems entirely independent of the world economy: e-commerce. Jarno Canhatapio, founder of nelly.com, states that he has never experienced any recession in his career as an e-commerce entrepreneur. It’s all about having a scalable business model, and reaching out globally as soon as possible.

Jarno showed us that e-commerce lies more in the hands of consumers than ever. The new generation of consumers is highly aware of prices and requires total transparency. “They all have ADHD” – that is, they want answers quickly and use several channels at once. They have no patience, and require simplicity to complete an online purchase. As transport costs are relatively low and likely to remain that way due to low oil prices, there is no significant difference in shipping an item from Stockholm to Haparanda in northern Sweden than from Stockholm to Australia.

It is hardly too bold an observation to state that global shipping and shopping will continue their rise in 2015 and that consumers' demands for increased flexibility and speed will rise as well.

Lena Ridström
CEO
lena.ridstrom@primelog.com