OANDA - Oil futures commentary

News   •   Oct 19, 2016 23:39 +08

Please attribute the following commentary to Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. For direct comment, call Jeffrey at +65 9457 1849 or email jhalley@oanda.com

Oil traded with a gently bid tone in the New York session, marking time near the upper end of its intraday range as OPEC's Secretary General made soothing noises about the upcoming 20th November meeting. Stating he thought a production cut deal amongst it members would be achieved relatively easily.

Post close, the American Petroleum Institute crude inventory numbers were released. These showed yet another surprise drawdown, this time - 3 million barrels vs an expected +2.5 million increase. This has given early Asian trading a bullish start with Brent trading at $51.85 a barrel and WTI at $50.65 a barrel. Still some way from their recent weekly highs.

Bullish start aside, plenty of event risk lurks over the next 24 hours. This morning we have China GDP and Industrial Production in Asia, followed this evening by the US EIA crude inventory report. Both will have a high beta to oil with the latter in particular likely to set the tone for the rest of the week.