OANDA - Oil futures commentary

News   •   Oct 27, 2016 10:50 +08

Please attribute the following commentary to Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. For direct comment, call Jeffrey at +65 9457 1849 or email jhalley@oanda.com

The US EIA crude inventories produced a brief dead cat bounce in oil today, but it was not enough to overcome position fatigue with both WTI and Brent down over 1.5 % in New York.

Although a lack of positive news from OPEC is being cited, I suspect the real reason is positioning in the market. Producers have hedged record volumes into this spike by selling futures. The weight of that selling, in the absence of any meaningful news regarding production cuts, has the large number of freshly minted longs above $50.00 a barrel starting to throw in the towel.

WTI has broken $49 a barrel with the next target around $46 the 100-day moving average. Brent is below $50 a barrel now targeting $48, its 100-day moving average.