Please attribute the following commentary to Stephen Innes, senior trader at OANDA
OPEC Agreement in Principle
The big news in markets this morning is that OPEC has agreed to a preliminary deal to cut production. After endless hours of discussion in Algeria, OPEC reached a consensus that a reduction in oil production is necessary.
Market share continues to be the contentious issue despite OPEC’s member countries agreeing on a production limit of 32.5mn to 33mn barrel per allocation. A subcommittee will be formed to iron out the details, so market exuberance will likely be tempered until the November OPEC meeting.
Ultimately this move should provide a near-term floor on oil and should be a stabilizing factor, especially for downside assaults, as fundamental supply concerns continue to be the primary driver in oil prices. Predictably, the oil patch complex and commodity based currencies enjoyed the afternoon limelight.
The OPEC deal in principle plays favourably for US shale oil producers, who will ramp up production if prices move north of WTI US $50.00. In this brave new world of oil production, the only way for a long-lasting bounce would be for non-OPEC members follow suit.
Despite the favourable bounce in the risk sentiment post-OPEC decision, USDJPY pessimism remains high, and we are likely to see traders continue to sell into rallies. Despite the growing pessimism, the pair has remained relatively resilient as there is some debate among dealers that a move below ¥100 will increase the likelihood of intervention. This shift is up from a consensus of ¥95, as suspicions reign that the MOF may step up their game after the BOJ failed to ease at the last meeting.
The USDJPY is extremely vulnerable to any negative US economic data and remains very much exposed unless the market starts to buy into the Federal Reserve Board multiple rate hike mantras with forward guiding to a high degree of certainty for a December lift off. On the Fed speak front, consensus is elusive with Kashkari and Evans continuing with dulcet dovish tones, while Mester takes a Hawkish tack.
While today's oil price movement are supportive of USDJPY, it is unlikely to be a dominant force as the oil markets are still dealing with major supply concerns.
USDCNH activity picked up considerably yesterday as offshore funding pressure abates and a sense of finality over the SDR support erodes.
There is short term support for the MYR from coming from the OPEC agreement, but the USDMYR pair remains the region’s underperformer. Oil should stay supportive short term, but until there is a convincing break above $50 per barrel the USDMYR will continue to be supported on dips.
The Australian dollar had a +35 pip bounce in the wake of the OPEC preliminary agreement, but was trading very productively this week nonetheless. In addition to the bounce in commodities, the AUDUSD is underpinned by a growing consensus that the RBA will remain on hold for the foreseeable future, underscoring the current market view of the Aussie as a safe haven high yielder.
With the RBNZ signalling a rate cut may be in the offing, the Australian Dollar has turned into the G-10 market favourite carry, while both US political landscape unfolds and market expectations for a December Fed lift off strengthens.
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