This graph shows the projected impact of fully implementing the Paris Climate Agreement on the GDP of different countries in the EU by 2030, compared to a ‘business as usual’ baseline forecast.
Latvia, Malta and Belgium will experience the largest boost to their GDP. At close to 6%, the projected growth in Latvia’s GDP is by far the most significant – this is largely due to the energy efficiency investment required, and the reduction in fossil fuel imports relative to GDP.
The successful transition towards a low-carbon economy, as defined by the Paris Climate Agreement, is projected to result in a 1.1% growth in GDP, and a 0.5% growth in employment, in the EU as a whole. Globally, China is also projected to benefit from a low-carbon transition, but the United States would experience a 3.4% drop in GDP, and a 1.6% decline in employment.
This analysis is based on a global macro-economic model run by Cambridge Econometrics, and Eurofound’s European Jobs Monitor. It is is detailed in the new Energy scenario: Employment implications of the Paris Climate Agreement report from the Future of Manufacturing in Europe (FOME) project.
Project page: Future of manufacturing in Europe