In the 10 major markets (the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, India, and China), incident cases in the global Crohn's disease market are expected to increase from 124,216 cases in 2012 to 140,561 cases in 2022 with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.32%. It is also expected that prevalent cases of Crohn's disease in the given markets will increase from 1,337,272 cases in 2012 to 1,481,386 cases in 2022 with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.08%. A major strength of this analysis is that the forecast methodology was consistent across the 10 major markets to allow for a meaningful comparison of the patient populations in each country.
Crohn's disease is a form of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) characterized by recurrent inflammation of all or part of the gastrointestinal tract (CDC, 2011). Globally, the incidence rates for Crohn's disease vary between 0.3 cases and 16.5 cases per 100,000 population, possibly indicative of an environmental influence in disease etiology (Economou et al., 2009).
To predict the future burden of Crohn's disease in the nine major markets and Canada, our epidemiologists used country-specific studies with a nationally representative sample size for the majority of the markets. Our epidemiologists also used consistent disease definitions and epidemiological methods across all markets.
In the nine major markets and Canada, incident cases of Crohn's disease will increase from 124,216 cases in 2012to 140,561 cases in 2022 with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.32%. India is projected to have the highest number of incident cases of Crohn's disease throughout the forecast period, with 58,366 cases in 2012 increasing to 67,603 cases in 2022 (AGR: 1.58%). This is most likely the result of population growth rather than an actual increase in the incidence rates for Crohn's disease in the Indian population, as our epidemiologists assumed a constant incidence rate throughout the forecast period.
However, a declining trend is observed in the incident cases of Crohn's disease for Germany (AGR: negative 0.64%) and Italy (AGR: negative 0.21%) over the forecast period. This is likely to be a result of declining population projection in these countries in the younger age group (15-40 years) where the incidence rates of Crohn's disease are the highest.
In the nine major markets and Canada, the prevalent cases of Crohn's disease are expected to increase by11% over the next decade, from 1.27 million prevalent cases in 2012 to 1.41 million prevalent cases by 2022. By 2022, the US will have the highest number of people living with Crohn's disease (0.6 million prevalent cases) of the nine major markets and Canada, closely followed by India (0.4 million prevalent cases).
With the development of new diagnostic techniques along with increased awareness and better access to screening programs, our epidemiologists expect an increase in the incident cases of Crohn's disease among all the major markets in this analysis. Improved diagnosis and increased disease awareness are likely to increase the number of incident cases over the next decade, in turn increasing the number of prevalent cases of Crohn's disease in the coming decade.
For more information on the global Crohn’s disease market, please click here: Global Crohn’s Disease Market
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