Mar 23, 2015 14:11 GMT The Business Continuity Institute So, first things first. What’s a black swan? Let’s get a definition out of the way: a black swan, to paraphrase Naseem Taleb, is an event that is (1) unpredictable, (2) massively game-changing and (3) in hindsight completely foreseeable. If it does not embody all three elements it’s not a black swan. Taleb says they’re rare – I say that’s changing.