Influenza, commonly known as the flu, is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses resulting in mild to severe influenza-like illness. Seasonal influenza affects persons of all ages. Each year, between 5% and 15% of the worlds population is affected by seasonal influenza (WHO, 2013). Complications of influenza include pneumonia, bronchitis, ear infections, sinus infections, and worsening of chronic medical conditions such as congestive heart failure, asthma, or diabetes. Vaccination has been shown to reduce influenza morbidity and mortality and high economic burden associated with influenza illness.
GlobalData epidemiologists identified country-specific population-based studies and government-collated surveillance data to build the influenza forecast, and utilized appropriate proxy data where applicable. Moreover, clinically relevant segmentations are provided for diagnosed incident cases of seasonal influenza, including influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, lab confirmed cases, hospitalized cases, and averted cases. Lastly, uniform diagnostic criteria are utilized for all segmentations across the 7MM using ICD-10 codes J09-J10, and seasonal versus calendar year influenza cases were reconciled, for example, by applying rates from the 2007-2008 influenza season to the 2007 calendar year population.
In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the seasonal influenza vaccination coverage will increase from 323,457,073 people in 2015 to 344,202,999 people in 2025, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.64%. The US will have the largest population vaccinated for seasonal influenza among the 7MM throughout the forecast period, while Spain will have the lowest. In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed outpatient ILI incident cases will increase from 38,432,598 cases in 2015 to 38,686,403 cases in 2025, at an AGR of 0.07%. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the influenza cases averted by seasonal influenza vaccinations will increase from 1,801,663 cases in 2015 to 1,858,033 cases in 2025.
- The Seasonal Influenza EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for seasonal influenza in the sevenmajor markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of seasonal influenza segmented by age and sex in the 7MM. Moreover, clinically relevant segmentations are provided for diagnosed incident cases of seasonal influenza, including influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, lab confirmed cases, hospitalized cases, and averted cases. In addition, the report also includes the number of individuals who received the influenza vaccination in the 7MM. For all the 7MM, diagnosed incident cases are segmented by age (0-4 years, 5-17 years, 18-64 years, and =65 years) and sex.
- The seasonal influenza epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.
Reasons to buy
The Seasonal Influenza EpiCast report will allow you to -
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global seasonal influenza market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global seasonal influenza market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for seasonal influenza therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 7
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 10
2 Epidemiology 11
2.1 Disease Background 11
2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 12
2.3 Global Trends 13
2.3.1 Historical Perspective of Vaccination Coverage 14
2.3.2 Laboratory Confirmed Influenza Cases 17
2.3.3 Hospitalization Due to Influenza 17
2.3.4 Influenza Averted Cases 18
2.4 Forecast Methodology 18
2.4.1 Sources Used Tables 19
2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 23
2.4.3 Sources Not Used 38
2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Seasonal Influenza (2015-2025) 38
2.5.1 Seasonal Influenza Vaccination 38
2.5.2 Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates 45
2.5.3 Diagnosed Outpatient Influenza-Like Illness Incident Cases 47
2.5.4 Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza 54
2.5.5 Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases 60
2.5.6 Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations 65
2.6 Discussion 69
2.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 69
2.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 70
2.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 71
3 Appendix 72
3.1 Bibliography 72
3.2 About the Authors 83
3.2.1 Epidemiologists 83
3.2.2 Reviewers 84
3.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 85
3.3 About GlobalData 86
3.4 About EpiCast 86
3.5 Disclaimer 87
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