Polysilicon Industry In China, 2014-2018

By the end of May 2014, the number of polysilicon manufacturers decreased from 80 in 2011 to less than 30 in China. Leading enterprises are GCL Silicon Technology Holdings Inc., China Silicon Corporation Ltd. and LDK Solar Co., Ltd. The output volume of polysilicon reached 82,000 tons in China in 2013. The largest manufacturer of polysilicon was GCL Silicon Technology Holdings Inc., a subsidiary of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited. The output volume of polysilicon of the company reached 50,440 tons in 2013, up by 36.1% YOY.

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The production costs for domestic manufacturers of polysilicon are far higher than the international level. Domestic enterprises gain some profits when the price of polysilicon is high. The profit margin exhibits downward trend as the price of polysilicon decreases.

The Access Conditions of Polysilicon Industry published by Chinese government states that the scale of a solar grade project should be larger than 3,000 ton/year while that of a semiconductor grade project should exceed 1,000 ton/year. In solar grade project, the comprehensive energy consumption needs to be lower than 200 kWh/kg. In terms of environment protection, the circulation and utilization rate of water should be higher than 95% while waste water, waste gas, solid waste and noise also need to meet related standards. It is estimated that the Access Conditions of Polysilicon Industry may result in around 20 manufacturers of polysilicon in China.

On January 20, 2014, the Ministry of Commerce of China published the final determination about solar grade polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea. The final determination announced to levy 2.4%-5.7% of anti-dumping duties and 0%-2.1% of anti-subsidy duties on solar grade polysilicon imported from the U.S. and South Korea with immediate effect. The determination hindered the import of polysilicon from the U.S. However, the products can enter China through processing trade and entrepot trade, etc. Although China levies the duties on polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea, the prices of polysilicon remain the same due to oversupply in domestic market. The actual improvement of situation is limited for manufacturers of polysilicon.

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In 2013, the import volume of polysilicon was 80,653 tons while the import value was USD 1,513 million. Although the two numbers declined compared with 2012, the demand for polysilicon import was large in China.

The demand volume for polysilicon is expected to be 0.14-0.17 million tons in China in 2014. The output volume is expected to be 0.1 million tons while the import volume will be 0.04-0.07 million tons. It is predicted that the price of polysilicon will remain within 20 USD/kg in 2014. The market price of polysilicon may increase if polysilicon is listed on the forbidden categories in processing trade.

The potential demand in photovoltaic market is large in developed countries like the U.S. and Japan and emerging markets like China while consumption is expected to promote global production of polysilicon in 2014-2015. The global output volume of crystalline silicon batteries exhibits upward trend and is expected to reach 45 GW in 2014, up by 10% YOY. The global output volume of polysilicon is estimated to be 0.278 million tons, up by 9% YOY. The output volume of solar grade polysilicon is expected to maintain the growth rate of 10% and reach 0.258 million tons. The output volume of polysilicon is expected to be 0.1 million tons in 2014, which is concentrated in GCL Silicon Technology Holdings Inc., TBEA Co., Ltd. and Daqo New Energy Corp. However, foreign polysilicon enterprises avoid the duties through processing trade and occupy the market with low prices, which lead to elimination of weak enterprises and high concentration rate in domestic market.

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The demand for polysilicon is large, which leads to huge potential for growth in China. Investors may be faced with risks of technology, environment protection and international trade barriers in the development stage of polysilicon industry in China.

More information can be acquired in this report:

Government Policies and Economic Situation in China Polysilicon Industry

Supply and Demand of Polysilicon in China

Import and Export of Polysilicon

Market Competition of Polysilicon

Price Trend of Polysilicon

Major Manufacturers of Polysilicon and the Operation Status in China

Forecast on Development of China Polysilicon Industry

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