Early assessment of free childcare for disadvantaged 2-year-olds shows modest impact on children’s educational attainment, points to importance of increasing take-up

Embargo for 00:01, Thursday 23 August

New research published by the Early Intervention Foundation (EIF) shows that although the government’s expansion of free childcare provision to disadvantaged 2-year-olds (the 2-year-old offer) has been associated with a modest change in educational outcomes, it has not so far led to a significant change in the closing of the attainment gap between disadvantaged children and their more affluent peers.[1]

EIF’s analysis uses the attainment scores of pupils who are eligible for free school meals (FSM) at the end of Reception year to compare children’s progress between two cohorts: those who have been eligible for additional free childcare via the 2-year-old offer, and those from older cohorts, who were age 2 prior to the introduction of the 2-year-old offer.

Over the past five years, the performance of FSM-eligible children has improved, and the gap in attainment with non-FSM-eligible children has closed by a small amount.[2] However, if the gap were to continue to close at the same rate, it would be over 40 years before the same proportion of FSM-eligible pupils achieved a ‘good level of development’ as non-FSM-eligible pupils.[3] Moreover, the rate at which this gap has been closing did not accelerate notably in 2015/16 and 2016/17, the first years in which the effects from the 2-year-old offer would be seen.

Although the attainment of FSM-eligible pupils has improved over the past five years, the rate of improvement at a national level has slowed over this period (2015/16–2016/17). At a local level, however, there is some evidence of positive impact. Looking at data for local authorities across England, EIF’s analysis detects a small positive relationship between increases in take-up over the first two years of the entitlement and increases in attainment of FSM-eligible children.[4]

Tom McBride, director of evidence at EIF, says:

“This analysis provides an initial picture of the impact of an important national programme to support young children’s development. The 2-year-old offer is a key plank in the government’s efforts to close the gap in educational attainment that we know emerges before children even reach school. The government is right to focus on the early years as a key window to tackle these inequalities before they take root. High-quality childcare is an important part of the solution, and there is good evidence to suggest it can improve long-term outcomes for disadvantaged children.

“In this case, the evidence is more equivocal: there is little evidence to suggest the introduction of the 2-year-old offer has been associated with a substantial increase in the early years educational outcomes of more disadvantaged children at the national level, but the picture at the local level is more encouraging, showing a modest impact on attainment that is associated with the proportion of children in the area who have taken up the offer.”

Donna Molloy, director of policy and practice at EIF, says:

“The 2-year-old childcare offer is a crucial part of the government’s attempts to close some of the gaps in development that open up between disadvantaged children and their peers. Given the level of funding involved, it is imperative that the government continues to monitor the impact this policy is having on participants’ later educational attainment.

“The 2-year-old offer is still in its early days, yet nonetheless, this analysis does provide some cause for reflection. If over the coming years the programme does not demonstrate clear evidence that it is fulfilling its stated aim of closing the early years attainment gap, then we should be open to considering whether changes to this policy are needed to ensure investment is being used to best effect.”

The authors note that, while the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile is the government’s national measure of a child’s progress in the early years, it is a relatively insensitive measure: it is tightly bunched, with around 28% of children in 2016/17 receiving exactly the same score.[5] This means that significant changes in EYFSP scores across the national population may be difficult to detect over time.

EIF’s analysis also focuses on take-up of the 2-year-old offer: how widely families are taking up the opportunity for additional free childcare provision, and the factors that may influence differences in take-up. Key findings include:

• Take-up is particularly low in London and Birmingham and surrounding metropolitan areas, although low take-up isn’t confined solely to large urban areas.
• Demographic characteristics explain a significant proportion of the variation in take-up. Take-up is lower for pupils from non-White British backgrounds, and particularly low when English is an additional language spoken at home, suggesting cultural and linguistic differences could be a barrier to accessing childcare.
• Characteristics of childcare provision available in an area may also be a contributory factor. In addition to the absolute number of places available, where the concentration of maintained providers (such as schools and nurseries) is high, take-up tends to be lower, implying that not all types of providers have been able or willing to expand provision to younger children.

Tom McBride, director of evidence at EIF, says:

“The 2-year-old offer is a national programme, with the potential to reach hundreds of thousands of children. According to the latest data, take-up of the 2-year-old offer is around 72% nationally – but this trails way behind take-up of the 3- and 4-year-old offer, which is around 94%. It is vital to understand the barriers that might be preventing disadvantaged families and children from taking up this entitlement.

“Our analysis shows a relationship, on a local level, between take-up of the 2-year-old offer and disadvantaged pupils’ attainment. While administrative data can’t tell us the reasons for this finding, it does suggest that increasing take-up should be a priority for government.”

*ENDS

Contact:
Mark Ballinger
Head of Communications, EIF
E: mark.ballinger@eif.org.uk
T: 020 3542 2481 (switchboard)

Notes:

1. The report will be available from 00:01, Thursday 23 August at: http://www.eif.org.uk/publication/an-initial-assessment-of-the-2-year-old-free-childcare-entitlement. Available in advance on request.
2. Over the period 2012/13–2016/17, the attainment of both FSM-eligible and non-FSM-eligible pupils increased, by 20 percentage points and 18 percentage points respectively. The size of the attainment gap fell from around 19 percentage points in 2012/13 to 17 percentage points in 2016/17.
3. ‘Good level of development’ is a formal designation which indicates a child has achieved at least ‘expected’ progress (on a three-point scale from ‘emerging’ to ‘exceeding’) towards five of the early learning goals within the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile: communication and language development; physical development; personal, social and emotional development; literacy; and mathematics.
4. A simple comparison of national-level trends cannot explain the extent to which the introduction of the 2-year-old offer has been associated with changes in attainment. Data regarding local authority-level take-up and attainment at the end of Reception allow us to test more rigorously for an effect, exploiting the variation between local areas.
5. On the three-point scale of ‘emerging’, ‘expected’ or ‘exceeding’ progress, most children receive a ‘2’ (expected progress) on most of the 17 sub-scales of the EYFSP, and thus many children will receive a very similar score.

About EIF:

• The Early Intervention Foundation (EIF) is an independent charity that champions and supports the use of effective early intervention to improve the lives of children and young people at risk of experiencing poor outcomes. For more information, see: http://www.eif.org.uk/