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Are we living in a world of secular stagnation?

Nyhet   •   Okt 21, 2015 11:23 CEST

Low growth, low inflation, low interest rates. What explains the persistence of these conditions in developed economies?

The secular stagnation hypothesis - a world of deficient global demand where the supply of savings exceeds investment demand - offers a most plausible explanation. Moreover, if the hypothesis is correct and the conditions are sustained, then there are serious implications for economic policy and investors.

Attached is the full document that discusses and digs deeper into the secular stagnation hypothesis. The paper is written by Dominic Rossi, Global CIO Equities, Fidelity Worldwide Investment.

Kommentarer (37)

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    This gloomy prospectus hasn’t stopped economists from working on solutions. One possible fix: instead of lowering rates, have the government fill in the investment gap with its own spending. "I think there's an overwhelming case for increased public investment, which I think is likely to raise economic growth," Summers says. He recommends a massive, 10-year infrastructure renewal program that would upgrade existing infrastructure like roads, bridges, and airports and build new capacity in areas like broadband, green technology and health care.

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    investment in the banking sector and stocks have also increased the rate of interest in loans, mortgages etc, These are directly dependent on the investment factors.

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    First we need to have a specific time frame to analyse whether or not an economy is undergoing secular stagnation. Low growth, low income for a longer period is what makes an economy stagnant.Some of the causes as explained in the document are ineffective monetary policy and weak demand for explaining the lower rates of economic growth, a hangover from the credit crisis,supply side and demographic factors (e.g. ageing population).

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    In the early days of 2009, the “new normal” was on virtually no one’s radar. Of course, the global financial crisis that had erupted a few months earlier threw the world economy into turmoil, causing output to contract, unemployment to surge, and trade to collapse. Dysfunction was evident in even the most stable and sophisticated segments of financial markets.

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