Skip to main content

Trevor Greetham´s Investment Clock August 2012: More easing to come

Nyhet   •   Aug 15, 2012 09:24 CEST

With growth weakening and inflation falling the Investment Clock is in Reflation. Stocks have responded positively as a wide range of central banks have started to ease policy. However, business confidence remains fragile and Europe’s crisis is in remission not retreat. It may take a new sell-off in stocks and a drop in inflation expectations to shock policy makers into the full-hearted quantitative response we think will be needed to underpin the next recovery.

Recovery follows Reflation but we are concerned investors are too optimistic on the degree of ease that will come in the near term, particularly in the US where stocks prices are back at cycle highs. High thresholds to effective action suggest things may have to get worse before they get better and it could still take a few months before the conditions for a new Recovery phase are in place.



  • In July there was a further drop in the inflation scorecard as consensus CPI fell.


  • Our global growth scorecard has continued to weaken.
  • There has been a fall in business confidence.
  • Economists have downgraded their GDP growth forecasts. And the OECD lead indicators have rolled over, which suggests a slowdown.


  • The fundamental environment is against “risk-assets”, but technical indicators have improved. Therefore, we have added to equities and commodities and this has partly reduced their underweight.
  • Within equities, we maintain our overweight in the US and still prefer it versus the eurozone. However, we reduced our overweight position in US equities, to increase exposure to UK equities, which is now our biggest regional overweight. We like the UK based on stocks valuations, positive company earnings revisions and technical factors.
  • We also increased our overweight positions in property securities and maintain big overweight in global government bonds.
  • Within commodities we are still very underweight. We have a diversified exposure but we have a bias in Gold.

Trevor Greetham joined Fidelity in January 2006 as Asset Allocation Director.  In addition to managing funds, Trevor is a member of Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Group.
Prior to joining Fidelity, he spent ten years at Merrill Lynch, where he was Director of Asset Allocation. Trevor began his career with UK life insurer Provident Mutual.  He holds an MA in Mathematics from Cambridge University and is a qualified actuary.


This document is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors. It must not be reproduced or circulated without prior permission. This communication is not directed at, and must not be acted upon by persons inside the United States and is otherwise only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. Fidelity/ Fidelity International means FIL Limited, and its subsidiary companies.  Unless otherwise stated, all views are those of the Fidelity organisation.  Investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity.  The research and analysis used in this material is gathered by Fidelity for its use as an Investment Manager and may have already been acted upon for its own purposes. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only. Fidelity only offers information on its own products and services and does not provide investment advice based on individual circumstances.  Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment and the Fidelity Worldwide Investment and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount invested. Fidelity’s legal representative in Switzerland is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich. Paying agent for Switzerland is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich. Malta: Growth Investments Limited is licensed by the MFSA. Fidelity Funds is promoted in Malta by Growth Investments Ltd in terms of the EU UCITS Directive and Legal Notices 207 ad 309 of 2004.  The Fund is regulated in Luxembourg by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier.  Issued by FIL Investments International (registered in England and Wales), authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. IC12/38

Bifogade filer


Kommentarer (0)

Lägg till kommentar


Genom att skicka din kommentar accepterar du att dina personuppgifter behandlas i enlighet med Mynewsdesks Integritetspolicy.