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Trevor Greetham's Investment Clock November: Opportunity in Uncertainty

Nyhet   •   Nov 08, 2012 09:36 CET

We are increasingly hopeful of a pick up in global growth in 2013. Developments in the US should mean the next upswing will be more sustained. The Fed has committed to maintain an easy monetary policy stance long into an upturn, even if this causes inflation to overshoot. Rising US property prices should also ease financial strains. A stronger US economy would help other economies to recover, particularly in the emerging markets and Asia.

There are clearly risks out there though. Uncertainties about the euro periphery are set to continue and mismanagement of the so-called “fiscal cliff” could dampen US retail sales and capital spending. However, with a broad range of monetary stimulus measures in place and lead indicators at trough levels, we view market uncertainty as an opportunity to increase our exposure to stocks.



  • In recent years, the impact of quantitative easing on commodity prices has meant that any pick-up in growth has gone hand-in-hand with an increase in inflationary pressures.
  • We believe the premature rise of inflationary pressures is in part to blame for the shortness of the economic cycles since the financial crisis.


  • Our global growth scorecard is negative, but with OECD lead indicators starting to pick up, it is likely to improve from here.


  • We viewed recent weakness as an opportunity to buy equities and sell government bonds on the expectation of a pick-up in growth in 2013.
  • We expect a second leg of outperformance from stocks, with Fed liquidity helping to push up valuations and the economic recovery boosting earnings.
  • At a regional level we favour US equities, however, we have also raised exposure to the Asia Pacific and moved overweight in emerging markets – both regions stand to benefit from a US-led economic recovery.

Trevor Greetham joined Fidelity in January 2006. He is Director of Asset Allocation and in addition to managing funds, Trevor is a member of Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Group. Prior to joining Fidelity, he spent ten years at Merrill Lynch, where he was Director of Asset Allocation. Trevor began his career with UK life insurer Provident Mutual.  He holds an MA in Mathematics from Cambridge University and is a qualified actuary.


This document is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors. It must not be reproduced or circulated without prior permission. This communication is not directed at, and must not be acted upon by persons inside the United States and is otherwise only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. Fidelity/ Fidelity International means FIL Limited, and its subsidiary companies.  Unless otherwise stated, all views are those of the Fidelity organisation.  Investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity.  The research and analysis used in this material is gathered by Fidelity for its use as an Investment Manager and may have already been acted upon for its own purposes. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only. Fidelity only offers information on its own products and services and does not provide investment advice based on individual circumstances.  Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment and the Fidelity Worldwide Investment and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount invested. Fidelity’s legal representative in Switzerland is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich. Paying agent for Switzerland is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich. Malta: Growth Investments Limited is licensed by the MFSA. Fidelity Funds is promoted in Malta by Growth Investments Ltd in terms of the EU UCITS Directive and Legal Notices 207 ad 309 of 2004.  The Fund is regulated in Luxembourg by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier.  Issued by FIL Investments International (registered in England and Wales), authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. IC12/83



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