Odds Favorites for the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature

On Thursday, October 9, the Swedish Academy will announce this year’s Nobel Prize in Literature. At Swedish Betsson, which has been offering odds on the prize for over a decade, Australian author Gerald Murnane is the current favorite, followed by Hungarian László Krasznahorkai and Mexican Cristina Rivera Garza. While recent winners have often ranked near the top of the odds lists, last year’s laureate, Han Kang was a surprise longshot.

This year’s list features 35 authors, many of whom are recurring names in Nobel speculation. Gerald Murnane also topped the list last year. He is one of Australia’s most acclaimed writers and a recipient of the Patrick White Award. If he wins, it would mark the first time in more than 50 years that an Australian has been awarded the prize – the last being Patrick White in 1973. László Krasznahorkai has appeared on the list before but never as a frontrunner.

“It’s not unusual for an author to lead the list two years in a row. What stands out this year is that both Murnane and Rivera Garza represent regions that have long been underrepresented among Nobel winners,” says Robin Olenius, Head of PR at Betsson.

Currently, Gerald Murnane stands at odds of 6.00, László Krasznahorkai at 7.00, and Cristina Rivera Garza at 10.00.

“In recent years, winners have often been among our top picks. Jon Fosse was second favorite and Annie Ernaux third. In 2020, Louise Glück was also a leading contender. But we’ve also seen major surprises, such as Bob Dylan and last year’s winner Han Kang – or Abdulrazak Gurnah, who wasn’t even on our list,” says Olenius.

Nobel Prize in Literature odds from Betsson:
Gerald Murnane: 6.00
László Krasznahorkai: 7.00
Cristina Rivera Garza: 10.00
Thomas Pynchon: 12.00
Mircea Cartarescu: 12.00
Anne Carson: 12.00
Amitav Ghosh: 13.00
Michel Houellebecq: 15.00
Can Xue: 15.00
Enrique Vila-Matas: 15.00
Salman Rushdie: 18.00
Jamaica Kincaid: 18.00
Alexis Wright: 18.00
Peter Nadas: 20.00
Cesar Aira: 20.00
Haruki Murakami: 20.00
Pierre Michon: 20.00
Raul Zurita: 20.00
Carl Frode Tiller: 20.00
Colm Toibin: 20.00
Ersi Sotiropoulos: 20.00
Karl Ove Knausgård: 22.00
Samanta Schweblin: 22.00
Ko Un: 25.00
Yoko Tawada: 25.00
Helle Helle: 25.00
Isabel Allende: 25.00
Milton Hatoum: 25.00
Joyce Carol Oates: 30.00
Homero Aridjis : 30.00
Ljudmila Ulitskaja: 30.00
Elena Poniatowska: 30.00
Margaret Atwood: 35.00
Stephen King: 50.00
Paul Simon: 50.00