Iran war could test aerospace supply chains: Industry remains resilient, despite structural risks

• Joint Roland Berger study with the aviation associations ADS, BDLI and GIFAS highlights improved resilience, yet warns of structural vulnerabilities amid rising geopolitical risks.
• Around one third of surveyed companies see a significant need for action in relation to the current ramp-up in production.
• Ongoing material shortages continue to weigh on the industry: 55% of companies are still affected, and about 80% are expecting constraints on some critical raw materials.

Munich, June 2026: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could further exacerbate the already strained global supply chains and place additional pressure on the aerospace industry. While the immediate operational impact has so far remained limited, a prolonged period of geopolitical instability could affect both supply chains and aircraft production over the long term, according to a new Roland Berger analysis.

The analysis suggests that the most significant risks may arise indirectly. Higher jet fuel prices, rerouted flight paths and weakening demand on certain routes are already putting pressure on airline profitability. If this trend persists, some carriers may need to revisit delivery timelines, which could, over time, influence production planning.

Roland Berger outlines three scenarios:

1. In the case of a quick resolution, no meaningful impact on aircraft production is expected. The conflict has so far primarily affected logistics, forcing some suppliers to shift from maritime transport to more expensive airfreight, increasing costs but not yet materially disrupting aircraft deliveries.
   
   
2. A more significant medium-term risk could arise from price increases and reduced availability of specific chemical products sourced from the Middle East. This may only affect production several months later through lead-times and inflation risks.
   
   
3. In a prolonged or escalating conflict scenario, declining airline profitability could have implications for production rates and investment decisions.

At the same time, a survey of 95 aerospace companies across Europe – conducted shortly before the outbreak of the Iran war in cooperation with the aerospace associations from the United Kingdom (ADS), France (GIFAS), and the Federal Association of the German Aerospace Industry (BDLI) – shows that the industry continues to see significant scope for improvement in terms of resilience and scalability: While more than 70% of companies feel ready for the current production ramp-up, around one third still see a need for action along supply chains and production processes. External disruptions could further exacerbate these issues.

"Geopolitical developments are adding a new layer of complexity to an already challenging environment,” says Stephan Baur, Partner at Roland Berger. “The industry has strengthened its resilience. However, further bottlenecks need to be addressed to ensure a stable production ramp-up.”

Supply chains have become more stable compared to previous years, but they remain strained in certain areas. 55% of companies continue to face relevant disruptions, and around 80% expect shortages of some critical raw materials such as special alloys or rare earths.

“We are delighted to see the proof in this analysis of a more resilient aerospace supply chain than we have seen in recent years, but significant challenges remain. Ongoing material shortages and capacity constraints continue to put pressure on industry at a time of sustained demand," says Kevin Craven, CEO of ADS. "Geopolitical instability adds further uncertainty, and it is clear that not all parts of the supply chain are currently equipped for the pace of production required. Continued collaboration between industry and government will be essential to strengthen resilience and support long-term growth.”

The aerospace sector is entering a new phase in which geopolitical risks, material shortage risks, price increases and industrial ramp-up challenges must be addressed simultaneously. To safeguard future production rates, close collaboration between OEMs, suppliers and policymakers will be critical as well as continued investment in more resilient and transparent supply chain structures.

About the study
The analysis is based on a joint Roland Berger survey conducted in collaboration with the UK aerospace association ADS, the Federal Association of the German Aerospace Industry (BDLI), and the French aerospace association GIFAS. The survey was carried out between January and February 2026 and includes responses from 95 companies across the European aerospace supply chain, covering all major tiers, sizes, and segments.