OANDA - Oil futures commentary

Please attribute the following comments to Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA:

Despite all the noise, when the dust settled on Friday, crude finished at roughly the levels that it started the previous Monday.

The main driver on Friday was the news that the bane of OPEC's life, those pesky US shale producers, had increased rig counts to eight month highs. Shale producers have apparently been hedging via futures aggressively into the WTI rally above $50 a barrel. Putting the two together, I surmise that quite a number of them now have breakevens quite a bit lower then $50 a barrel which means getting the OPEC deal over the line takes on ever greater importance.

This morning WTI opens at $50.00 a barrel with Brent at $41.70 a barrel as the market waits for various crude inventory reports Tuesday and Wednesday.

Contact Jeffrey for direct comment at:

e:jhalley@OANDA.com

t:+65 6579 8288 ext 212121