Storebrand AM downgrades global equities to neutral following oil price surge

Oslo, 4 March 2026 – A sharp rise in oil and gas prices following the attack on Iran has prompted Storebrand Asset Management to downgrade global equities from overweight to neutral. This is outlined in the monthly update from the Allocation Team, led by Olav Chen.

Brent crude has risen from around USD 70 per barrel to just below USD 85 and is up nearly 40 per cent since the start of the year. Iran has warned of a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 per cent of global oil exports pass.

“If the conflict becomes prolonged, it will weigh on global growth prospects while pushing inflation expectations higher. This is where the main uncertainty currently lies,” says Olav Chen, Head of Allocation and Global Fixed Income at Storebrand AM.

Equity markets have declined, bond yields have risen and the US dollar has strengthened amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Global equities downgraded to neutral
Global equities, measured by the MSCI World Index in local currency terms, rose by close to 1 per cent in February – the tenth consecutive month of gains – before markets fell following the attack on Iran and subsequent increase in energy prices.

The sharp rise in oil prices in March has led to renewed assessments of growth prospects and future earnings expectations.

“If the conflict drags on, it will have real economic consequences. We therefore return to a neutral allocation in global equities,” says Chen.

Overweight positions maintained in Sweden, Norway, emerging markets and credit
At the same time, Storebrand AM maintains overweight positions across several markets and asset classes:

Emerging markets
Swedish equities
Norwegian equities
Credit and corporate bonds

Swedish equities, measured by the OMXS30G index, rose by around 7 per cent in February – the eighth consecutive month of gains. A large part of the increase was reversed in early March following the attack on Iran and rising energy prices. Together with the rest of Europe, the Swedish equity market is more sensitive to higher energy prices; nevertheless, Storebrand AM maintains an overweight position in Swedish equities.

The Oslo Stock Exchange rose by more than 7 per cent in February, reaching a new all‑time high. Following further increases in oil and gas prices in March, the Oslo market has held up relatively better than global equity markets.

In emerging markets, gains continued in February, with particularly strong performance in South Korea and Taiwan. South Korea closed February up 56 per cent year‑to‑date in local currency terms but has retreated sharply in March.

Underweight duration in global government bonds

Storebrand AM remains underweight duration in global government bonds. After global government bonds rose in February, part of the decline in yields has been reversed as a result of higher energy prices and rising inflation expectations.

“The longer the conflict persists, the higher inflation expectations are likely to become, and the more challenging the implications for central banks,” says Chen.

In Norway, the Allocation Team maintains a neutral duration stance in government bonds. Core inflation came in at 3.4 per cent year‑on‑year, and the yield curve shifted higher by around 20–25 basis points in February.

Trade uncertainty and a new phase for AI

In February, the US Supreme Court ruled that several tariffs introduced under the IEEPA emergency legislation were unlawful. New tariffs have since been imposed under alternative trade legislation, with time limits requiring congressional approval for any extension. This continues to contribute to trade policy uncertainty.

At the same time, the Allocation Team notes that the launch of new AI products from Anthropic marks a new phase in the development of artificial intelligence.

“New AI solutions can make existing products cheaper or obsolete. This highlights the disruptive aspects of the broadening‑out of AI,” says Chen.

Storebrand AM’s key positioning for March:

Global equities: Neutral (down from overweight)
Swedish equities: Overweight
Norwegian equities: Overweight
Emerging markets: Overweight
Global government bonds: Underweight duration
Norwegian and Swedish government bonds: Neutral duration
Credit: Overweight

For more information, please don't hesitate to contact:

Olav Chen, Head of Allocation And Global Fixed Income: olav.chen@storebrand.com | +47 95075498
Andreas Buoen, Press contant: andreas.buoen@storebrand.no | +47 94032599