Stroke Association warns of 51% increase in strokes over the next 10 years, costing half the current NHS budget

New analysis by the Stroke Association finds that the number of new strokes will increase by 51% from 100,000 to 151,000 by 20351, costing over £75 billion1 – roughly half the current NHS budget2.

The Stroke Association is calling for better approaches to prevention, treatment and recovery from stroke, to be included in parties’ manifestos for the upcoming General Election to reduce the burden of stroke on people’s lives, the NHS and the economy.

A combination of ageing population, lifestyle factors and insufficient action on stroke prevention is set to increase the number of strokes by 51% by 20351. In turn, the stroke survivor population will increase by 62% from 1.3 million to 2.1 million1, nearly matching the current population of Slovenia3.

Currently, one in four strokes happen to people of working age4. 37% of working age stroke survivors give up work following their stroke5 meaning that by 2035, there will be over 173,000 stroke survivors missing from the workforce6. The current loss of productivity due to stroke is £1.6 billion, which is set to increase by 136% by 20351.

The cost of stroke by 2035 is estimated to exceed £75 billion1, which is nearly half of the current NHS budget 2. This is avoidable with targeted Government intervention on stroke prevention, treatment and recovery.

Juliet Bouverie OBE, Chief Executive at the Stroke Association, said: “The demand for NHS services will be unsustainable by 2035.”

“If the next Government fails to tackle prevention, treatment, and recovery at the root, then stroke will become the most avoidable burden on the NHS. Every stroke is a tragedy, but 151,000 strokes per year, and growing each year, will be a failure of leadership. In 2000, stroke was the second leading cause of death in the UK7 but by making stroke a national priority reflected in local resources, stroke mortality was halved by 2010. So, change is possible.”

Stroke occurs when blood flow to the brain is disrupted by a clot in an artery or a bleed, causing the brain to start to die. For every minute stroke goes untreated, 1.9 million brain cells die8. Last year, only 40% of stroke patients were admitted to specialised stroke care units within the four-hour target, a considerable decline from 55% pre-pandemic9.

At present, 60% of patients who survive will be left with a disability9. For many, this means not being able to walk, write, speak or even see or swallow. Recovery is possible, but often requires rehabilitative therapies such as physiotherapy, occupational therapy and speech and language therapy. Few patients receive the recommended dose of rehabilitative therapies they need.

Stroke survivor Marwar Uddin, 24 from London said: “Stroke is one of the worst things because of the long-term impact. I need help to go to the toilet. I can’t even dress myself. My voice is different now. I’m a different person. I cry myself to sleep most days. It’s difficult for me.

“Thanks to Life After Stroke services, I’ve slowly been rebuilding myself and I am also set to start a phased return to work later this year. If I didn’t have any of this support, I think I would still be in a chair in my living room watching the world go by.”

Manifesto available here: https://www.stroke.org.uk/get-involved/campaigns/election

The Stroke Association is calling for the Government to:

Prevention:

• Publish a funded stroke prevention plan

Treatment:

• Make sure that the stroke treatment thrombectomy, is universally available, 24/7

Recovery:

• Ensure that all stroke survivors can access the rehabilitation and Life After Stroke support they need, in line with national guidelines.

Projected impact of stroke in the UK in 2035:

• 151,000 new stroke hospital admissions per year1
• 414 stroke admissions per day10
• Stroke strikes every four minutes10
• 2.1 million stroke survivors living in the UK1
• Cost of stroke: £75 billion1
• 42,000 deaths due to stroke12
• 173,000 stroke survivors missing from the workforce6

Current impact of stroke in the UK (2024):

• 100,000 new stroke hospital admissions per year
• 1.3 million stroke survivors living in the UK
• Stroke strikes every five minutes
• Cost of stroke: £43 billion2
• £1.6 billion loss in national productivity due to stroke, which is set to increase by 136% by 2035.1

References

1Current, future and avoidable costs of stroke in the UK: Technical report; Stroke Association (2020)

2 Health care funding: Three key questions about funding in England; The Health Foundation (2024)

3World Population Prospects 2022; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division (accessed 23.04.24)

4Mallick A, O’Callaghan FJ (2009). The epidemiology of childhood stroke. European Journal Paediatric Neurology. 2010 May;14(3):197-205

5Lived experience of stroke report – Chapter 2: The wider impacts of stroke; Stroke Association (2019)

6Estimate based on a stroke survivor population of 2.1 million and a rate of 37% of working age (age 65 and under) stroke survivors leaving the workforce.

7National Archives, Office for National Statistics: The 20th Century Mortality Files, 1901-2000. (2011)

8Saver JL. Time is brain--quantified. Stroke. 2006 Jan;37(1):263-6. doi: 10.1161/01.STR.0000196957.55928.ab. Epub 2005 Dec 8. PMID: 16339467.

9Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme (SSNAP) Annual report (2023) https://www.strokeaudit.org/Documents/National/Clinical/Apr2022Mar2023/Apr2022Mar2023-AnnualReport.aspx

11Based on 151,000 stroke patients per year.

12Projection based on NICE stroke mortality rate, adjusted for a UK population estimated by ONS to be 73.4m by 2035.

13Stroke statistics, Stroke Association (accessed 24.04.24) https://www.stroke.org.uk/stro...