The Pharmaceutical Market: Zambia

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The majority of investment in Zambia's healthcare market stems from international aid agencies - so the news that the government has increased its allocation for healthcare spending in the 2013 budget will be well received by both NGOs and international investors as a sign that Zambia is taking its commitment to healthcare seriously. The country suffers from a burden of both communicable and non-communicable diseases, with a high incidence of HIV and AIDs, malaria, and problems such as cholera emerging in Q4 12, but it is making progress. The government claims it has already met its millennium development goals for turbercolosis, and is on target to meet other healthcare goals. Risks remain, such as the presence of counterfeit and substandard drugs, and the reliance on copper export means Zambia's economy has a narrow base.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: ZMK951bn (US$196mn) in 2011 to ZMK1,095bn (US$207mn) in 2012; +15.1% in local currency terms and +5.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered slightly from Q4 12.

Healthcare: ZMK5,347bn (US$1.10bn) in 2011 to ZMK6,290bn (US$1.19bn) in 2012; +17.6% in local currency terms and +8.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered slightly from Q4 12.

Risk/RewardRating

In Q1 13, Zambia remained steady at 21st best market in the MEA region in BMI's proprietary Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) matrix with a score of 39.6.

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