Blog-Eintrag -

Data got “Pussy” wrong but it has not died – yet

In yesterday’s post, I called for a substantial overhaul of our practices of data consumption. I did not go as far as others who, at least in one high-profile case, claimed that “data died.” But as more information about polling emerges and pre-election reporting is being scrutinized the world over, a number of factors are becoming increasingly clear which we should take note of when doing quantitative research in the future.

First, we need much better questions. On paper, everybody may agree that data is only as good as the questions that are going into it in the first place, but in practice, this has not been observed. Says Nate Silver, “In the average state won by Trump, the polls missed by an average of 7.4 percentage points.” This points to a fundamental misunderstanding of very large parts of the American electorate, and it is not just a matter of turnout among White working-class voters:

  • Donald Trump was said to have poor chances among Latino voters because of his attacks on “them.” Yes, he displayed xenophobic tendencies, and he did not mind being endorsed by racists. But his attacks were specifically targeted at Mexicans and at illegal immigrants. Many Latinos in the United States are not Mexicans, nor of Mexican descent, nor are they illegal immigrants. Many pollsters did not take sufficient account of anti-Mexican sentiment among certain Latino communities, and of their pride in their own successful path to U.S. citizenship.
  • Another example is women, and this is going to sound painful: A very large number of women seem to think that you can do worse as their elected representative than boast about “grabbing pussy.” You and I may not agree; but Donald Trump got a lot of women’s votes, and researchers struggle to explain this.
  • Similarly, according to poll after poll, voters said that they did not think Donald Trump was qualified to be president, or that they despised him. Yes, even a fair number of these people must have voted for him – and not just against Hillary Clinton, as many commentators made us believe.

Second, we need to get better at constructing a narrative out of the data that we have in front of us. This is a call issued also by Democratic researcher, Stanley Greenberg, who says that the main problem with election forecasts was with the “interpretation of the polls.”

Donald Trump is being depicted by some as the face of the new America; his election, as a rejection of the old elites by the poor.

Well.

At inauguration he will be the oldest person ever to have served as president – in 240 years. Equally, his voters are older than Clinton’s. We see the same age distribution among his electorate as we saw among the Brexiters: the older you are, the more likely you are to vote Trump (or Brexit). In both these cases, babyboomers or even their parents are saying no to the world their children call home, and they succeed at putting it at risk.

Another misreading of the available data is that it’s the people at the lower end of the income scale who put Trump in power. It is not (if that data is correct!). It is people who earn upwards of $50,000. So these are people who do have an income and who have had a professional career and who have been able to navigate the economic troubles of the last decade or two, although it is becoming increasingly difficult for them to continue. While this gets mentioned here and there now, it is a big story that needs to be explored in detail, and it’s uncomfortable – not because Trump’s voters are so different from the chattering classes but precisely because they are more similar than expected.

So I do not mean to say that quantitative research as such is in crisis. But it needs to be put in proper context.

Dr. Christophe Fricker
Managing Partner, NIMIRUM

Links

Themen

  • Geisteswissenschaften

Kategorien

  • donald trump
  • us-election 2016
  • trendanalyse
  • fricker
  • usa
  • research

Kontakt

Zugehörige Meldungen

  • Fakten in postfaktischen Zeiten – starker Wachstumskurs von Nimirum setzt sich auch 2016 fort

    Nimirum wächst weiter: Der Wissensmittler zwischen Wissenschaft und Wirtschaft hat gegenüber dem Vorjahreszeitraum seinen Umsatz verdoppelt. 2016 wurden über 30.000 Seiten in Form von Checks, Reports und multidisziplinären Studien erstellt. Mittlerweile arbeiten acht Angestellte und 400 Expertinnen und Experten aus 65 Ländern bei und für Nimirum (Sitz: Leipzig und Bristol).

  • Nimirum auf Digital PR Bootcamp und European Communications Convention // Geschäftsführer des Wissensdienstleisters Nimirum teilen ihr Wissen

    Die Managing Partner Anja Mutschler und Dr. Christophe Fricker zeigen in dieser Woche auf branchenrelevanten Konferenzen Flagge: Mutschler auf dem Digital PR Bootcamp mit einem Vortrag zu „Fact oder Fake News? Worauf es beim digitalen Content heute ankommt", Fricker mit einem Referat über „Facts - Who Cares? Research and Politics post-Brexit".

  • President Trumps Research

    Die Wahl von Trump zum US-Präsidenten stellt die Welt von Research und Wissen vor zwei wichtige Herausforderungen: 1. Warum hat fast keine Prognose diesen Sieg vorhergesagt und was sagt das über quantitative Vorhersagen generell aus? 2. Wie geht es weiter in einer Welt, in der nun nach dem Brexit zum zweiten Mal eine wichtige Abstimmung zugunsten postfaktischer Politik entschieden wurde?

  • “What is the role of humans?” – Tech people and people people talking translation at TEF2016

    Technological change is turning the world of translation upside down. Client expectations are changing, which leads to the emergence of new job profiles and tasks. What is in store for translation in a multilingual, communication-oriented world? Visions and tools were discussed at the EU Commission's Translating Europe Forum 2016. A comment by NIMIRUM Managing Partner, Dr Christophe Fricker.

  • The U.S. Book Market: Trends and Demographics in 2016

    As the world’s largest market for books the US are at the forefront of current trends which are bound to affect other regions around the world. Current developments include a decline in the sales of eBooks, which now only constitute 17% of all book sales in 2015 due to “digital fatigue” among consumers. NIMIRUM Expert Dirk Vogel takes a closer look at current trends and developments.

  • Our Brexit Opportunity (Ländercheck, Folge 8)

    Bietet uns der Brexit auch Chancen? Was das Votum bedeuten würde, war vielen Wählerinnen und Wählern unklar. Aber eines wollten sie: eine einflussreiche Entscheidung treffen. Darauf lässt sich aufbauen. Ein Kommentar von Dr. Christophe Fricker, Managing Partner von Nimirum.

  • NIMIRUM auf der Hub conference: Digital, aber (noch) nicht disruptiv

    Hub conference in Berlin 2016: Experten-Drehscheibe zu ambitionierten technologischen Zukunftsthemen, aber vom Format her hinter den Möglichkeiten eines an sich vorausschauenden Meetings, findet Marko T. Hinz, freier Mitarbeiter bei NIMIRUM, der aus der Hauptstadt berichtet.

  • Eine (wahre) Geschichte der Fake News

    Stefan Raab ist tot, Obama bei einem Brand ums Leben gekommen, und der Papst unterstützt Trump? Frei erfunden – aber so wirksam, dass die Angst vor den Fake News umgeht. Vor „Lügenschleudern“ (Spiegel), vor den „Armeen der Unwahrheit“ (Die Zeit). Eigentlich gibt es schon Mechanismen dagegen. Aber das heutige Problem ist ein ganz anderes. Eine Analyse von Nimirum-Experte Dr. Christian Salzborn.

  • NIMIRUM: internationale Einschätzungen zur US-Election 2016

    Es ist Realität. Donald Trump wurde zum Präsident der Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika gewählt. Die Reaktionen reichen von zufrieden über überrascht bis zum Rande des Nervenzusammenbruchs. Einen Tag nach der Wahl äußern unsere Experten Erwartungen an die Zukunft und analysieren Reaktionen von Kanada über die Schweiz bis Russland.

  • Journalismus und Gesellschaft - Reflexionen des LSOM-Dozenten Dr. Tobias D. Höhn

    Wer sich heute für den Journalismus entscheidet, hat klare Vorstellungen – aber auch Fragen: an Medienhäuser, an die Öffentlichkeit, an sich selbst. Studierende des intern. Masterstudiengangs New Media Journalism (NMJ) haben sich zum Auftakt an der Leipzig School of Media (LSOM) in einer Übung journalistisch mit dem Thema Journalismus auseinandergesetzt. Dazu Studiengangsleiter Dr. Tobias D. Höhn.