Press release -
Lowest transaction volume in a decade, but better times ahead
After several strong years, transaction volumes in the Nordic property market fell sharply to just below EUR 20bn
in 2023. This is 60 percent lower than 2022 and 73 percent lower than the top-year 2021. Volumes are now back to the same level as 2013, but there are better times around the corner, according to Nordic property advisor Colliers.
“Most likely, 2023 will be the low point of this economic cycle. Drastically higher interest rates and an uncertain economic outlook have really cooled off the real estate market, but we have seen a changed momentum towards the end of the year. The interest rate peak is probably reached by now, and we expect
a stronger market in 2024,” says Bård Bjølgerud, CEO & Partner at Colliers Nordics.
Transaction volume 2023 | Sweden | Norway | Finland | Denmark | Nordics |
Transaction volume (EURbn) | 7.8 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 19.7 |
- Change compared to 2022 | -59% | -62% | -68% | -54% | -60% |
Number of deals | 230 | 150 | 135 | 160 | 675 |
- Change compared to 2022 | -36% | -60% | -39% | -42% | -45% |
Average deal size (EURm) | 34 | 26 | 19 | 34 | 29 |
Foreign buyers | 29% | 15% | 47% | 30% | 29% |
Foreign sellers | 15% | 14% | 17% | 38% | 21% |
Based on property transactions above EUR 5 million.
Volumes down in all Nordic countries – just like the rest of Europe
Transaction volumes fell significantly in all Nordic countries in 2023. Finland dropped most with 68 percent, followed by Norway (-62 percent) and Sweden (-59 percent). The Danish market was most resilient with a
54 percent decline. The lower volumes were driven by fewer deals as well as reduced average deal size.
“We see a similar development across Europe with volumes down 50-70 percent in all major markets. However, we expect the Nordic countries to be among the first to recover, due to healthy underlying fundamentals and motivated investors, both on the buy-side and sell-side,” says Mikael Söderlundh,
Head of Research & Partner at Colliers Nordics.
Focus on logistics while public property losing ground
Sector-wise, logistics and residentials were the largest segments in 2023 accounting for 26 percent each of the Nordic transaction volume. Logistics accounted for only 19 percent in 2022 and is the largest segment for the first time. Contrary, the share of public property deals has decreased from 17 percent to nine percent of the volume.
Continued property sales from the listed sector
The listed property companies have continued to be large net sellers in the Nordic market and especially in Sweden. In 2023, the listed sector accounted for nine percent of all acquisitions and 33 percent of all sales in Sweden. The equivalent figures were 49 percent and 13 percent respectively back in 2021.
“The listed property companies have clearly shifted focus from buy to sell, driven by financing issues and valuations below NAV. We foresee the listed sector to have continued focus on debt restructuring and deleverage in 2024, but share prices have increased more than 40 percent over the last two months, and
there is suddenly light in the tunnel,” says Mikael Söderlundh.
Positive inflow of foreign capital eight years in a row
Foreign buyers accounted for 29 percent and foreign sellers accounted for 21 percent of the Nordic volume in 2023, meaning a positive capital inflow to the region for the eight consecutive year. In Finland, the share
of foreign buyers was as high as 47 percent in 2023.
The five largest property transactions in the Nordic region in 2023:
- NREP (Altura) acquiring a care home portfolio (22 assets) in Sweden from Vectura (SEK ~5bn)
- AP Ejendomme acquiring two office properties in Copenhagen from Corem (DKK ~2.5bn)
- NREP acquiring two office properties in Stockholm from Fabege (SEK ~3.4bn)
- Slättö acquiring a care home portfolio (47 assets) from Estea (SEK ~3bn)
- The tenant acquiring a hospital and development site in Norway from SBB (NOK ~2.8bn)
Attachments
• Chart: Nordic transaction volumes, 2008-2023
• Chart: Nordic transaction volume split by geography and sectors, 2023
• Chart: Share of foreign buyers in the Nordic countries, 2023
• Chart: Share of listed property companies on the buy-side and sell-side, 2021-2023
• Photos
Karoline Fagerheim, Marknadsförings- och kommunikationschef, Colliers Nordics
+47 92 84 05 54, karoline.fagerheim@colliers.com
Mikael Söderlundh, Analyschef och partner, Colliers Nordics
+46 73 770 77 90, mikael.soderlundh@colliers.com
Bård Bjølgerud, VD och partner, Colliers Nordics
+47 484 08 080, bard.bjolgerud@colliers.com
About Colliers Group
Colliers is a leading diversified professional services and investment management company. With operations in 65 countries, our 19,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert real estate and investment advice to clients. For more than 28 years, our experienced leadership with significant inside ownership has delivered compound annual investment returns of approximately 20% for shareholders. Colliers mission is to maximize the potential of property and real assets to accelerate the success of our clients, our investors and our people. Learn more at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter @Colliers or LinkedIn.
