EWI Analysis: Electrolysis Ramp-Up in Germany is Progressing More Slowly Than Planned

The expansion of electrolysis capacity in Germany is progressing significantly slower than planned. This is the conclusion of a recent analysis by the Energy Economics Institute at the University of Cologne (EWI), based on an evaluation of the institute's own electrolysis database. According to the analysis, it is questionable whether the political target of 10 gigawatts (GW) of electrolysis capacity by 2030 can be achieved.

Currently, electrolyzers with an installed electrical capacity of 181 megawatts (MWel) are in operation in Germany. A further 1.3 GW has received a final investment decision (FID) or is under construction. Under these conditions, a total of up to 1.5 GW of electrolysis capacity could be connected to the grid by the end of 2027.

While this represents an increase compared to the last survey in August 2024, there are also several projects with planned capacities exceeding 100 MW for which an FID has already been granted. At the same time, however, the analysis shows that nearly 3 GW of originally announced projects have been removed from the database, either because they were canceled or because they reportedly failed to publish reliable project information for an extended period.

According to EWI, the overall potential electrolysis capacity of all projects announced up to 2030 is approximately 8.7 GW, which is significantly below the official expansion target. Furthermore, project delays appear to be the norm: Of the projects that were scheduled to go into operation in 2025 as of August 2024, only about 30 percent were completed on time.

EWI also sees considerable implementation risks for the coming years. While more than 20 projects with planned commissioning in 2026 have been announced, for 14 of these projects – with a combined capacity of over 1 GW – there is still neither a final investment decision nor a confirmed start of construction. Against this backdrop, completion within the planned timeframe appears uncertain.

The EWI cites regulatory complexity and uncertainty, as well as high investment and operating costs, as reasons for the sluggish ramp-up. These factors coincide with a currently limited willingness among consumers to pay for green hydrogen. Furthermore, a structural coordination problem persists, as production, demand, and infrastructure must be developed in parallel.