EWI Analysis: Supply Security for Hydrogen Imports Requires Looking Beyond Costs

When selecting supplier countries for green hydrogen and ammonia, factors beyond import costs should be considered – including the economic, political, and social framework conditions of the exporting countries. This is the conclusion of a recent analysis by the Energy Economics Institute at the University of Cologne (EWI). To evaluate potential exporters, the EWI has developed the EWI Future Energy Score (EFES), which assesses supply security beyond pure cost metrics.

EU Countries Score Well on Both Metrics – but Domestic Potential Remains Limited

Imports from EU countries such as Spain and Finland perform well on the EFES while also offering comparatively low delivery costs – yet their supply potential for Germany remains limited. Countries with the world's lowest import costs, such as Morocco or Turkey, score lower on the EFES, indicating higher import risks. Domestic production in Germany combines a high score with low costs, but will not be sufficient to cover future demand on its own. Germany's National Hydrogen Strategy projects an import share of up to 70 percent by 2045.

Green Ammonia: Ship Imports from Overseas Become More Attractive

For green ammonia, countries with longer transport routes – such as Australia or Canada – could become economically attractive due to lower specific transport costs. However, Germany would face international competition in an emerging global ammonia market.