New study: Brands are losing influence - AI and economic uncertainty are reshaping consumer behavior

• Consumers caught between confidence and crisis concerns: 69 percent rate their own health positively – while almost one in two view the economic situation in their own country negatively
• Brands are losing their appeal: Only 21 percent still cite brand reputation as a key reason for purchase – personal networks and peer recommendations are gaining relevance
• AI is influencing purchase decisions: 93 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds already use AI for research – brands that are not visible and easy to understand there risk being quickly overlooked in the digital purchase process

Munich, July 2026: Consumer spending is coming under new pressure: Economic uncertainty, declining trust in institutions and the rise of artificial intelligence are changing how people discover, evaluate and buy products. The new Roland Berger study “The consumer playbook is changing” shows that consumer behavior is undergoing a fundamental shift. For the study, a total of 6,000 consumers in nine countries were surveyed between February and March 2026.

The study’s first key finding may seem contradictory, but it is highly relevant: While physical and mental health are among the areas of life rated most positively, at 69 percent each, almost half of respondents (47 percent) take a negative view of the economic situation in their country. Only 37 percent rate climate and sustainability positively. It is precisely this coexistence of personal stability and societal uncertainty that is shaping consumer behavior in 2026.

The second disruption concerns trust and product discovery. Traditional brand messages are visibly losing impact: Only 21 percent of respondents name brand reputation as one of the three most important reasons for making a purchase. At the same time, personal networks are becoming the second most important source for product discovery: 40 percent discover products through friends and family, and 21 percent through direct peer recommendations. For companies, this means that reach alone is no longer enough. What matters is credible value, verifiable performance and presence in the relevant social moments of decision-making.

The third driver is artificial intelligence – and its influence now extends far beyond search. On average, 70 percent of 18- to 64-year-olds regularly use AI for product research; among 18- to 24-year-olds, the figure is already 93 percent. AI is therefore evolving from a research tool into an upstream authority in purchase decisions: It filters options, compares products and shapes recommendations. Brands that are neither visible nor trustworthy in this digital recommendation environment are no longer perceived as relevant by consumers.

The study also shows that the market is increasingly developing in two opposing directions. On the one hand, there are consumers who consciously focus on durability and quality; on the other, the market is clearly shifting toward low prices and discount offerings. In 2025, 42 percent of respondents reduced their luxury spending, one third shopped more often at discounters – and 23 percent plan to intensify this further in 2026. The discount segment is no longer a low-income phenomenon: Consumers across all income groups are making discounters their standard starting point.

“It is not the price pressure that is surprising – we are familiar with that. What is surprising is the paradox behind it: Many people feel personally stable, yet view the world around them with growing skepticism,” says Thorsten de Boer, Senior Partner at Roland Berger. “This tension is exactly what is giving rise to new consumer behavior. Those who understand it understand their customers.”

“The transformation companies are facing is too broad and too costly to manage alone,” adds Richard Federowski, Partner at Roland Berger. “Those who are present at the right point in the decision-making process at the right moment – as a trusted brand, an AI-readable product or a provider with local relevance – will remain relevant. Everyone else will gradually lose importance.”

About the study

The study is based on an international survey of 6,000 consumers in nine countries: in Europe (Germany, France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands), North and Latin America (USA, Brazil, Mexico) and the Middle East (United Arab Emirates). The survey period ran from late February to late March 2026.