European voters say no to tariffs

There is no popular support for imposing trade tariffs in Europe − not even in response to Trump’s trade policies. This is according to a new study based on responses from 5,500 people in Germany and the UK.

In two major opinion surveys in Germany and the UK, researchers investigated what people think about tariffs. Participants were asked to take a position on tariffs to protect their own country’s economy, support green investments and respond to Donald Trump’s new trade policies. The result was unequivocal: European voters reject tariffs no matter how they are justified.

“We were surprised at the consistency of the opposition. Even when tariffs were presented as a way of financing climate action, people preferred other economic solutions,” says Michal Grahn, a political scientist and first author of the study.

European voters prefer stability

The study, a collaboration between Uppsala University, the University of Reading and the University of Southampton, was conducted in conjunction with the introduction of the US tariffs in spring 2025, which targeted imports from both the EU and the UK. The researchers used conjoint experiments, where participants were asked to weigh different policy proposals against each other – just like in real elections.

In all, nearly 4,000 people took part in Germany and 1,500 in the UK. They were recruited via established online panels and the samples were representative of the population in each country. Participants were asked to choose between different economic policy packages setting tariffs against other options.

According to the study, trade tariffs are not an issue that scores political points. European voters prefer stability and cooperation to trade policy countermeasures. The researchers argue the results are important for European policy makers.

“Even at a time of global uncertainty, there is no widespread support for responding to US protectionism with tariffs of our own. There is an idea that tougher trade policies are popular, but our results show the opposite. European voters seem to favour caution over conflict,” Grahn concludes.

For more information:

Michal Grahn, Assistant Professor at the Department of Government, Uppsala University

Emai: michal.grahn@statsvet.uu.se
Mobile phone: +4670 066 49 26

Article

Grahn, M., Lawall, K., Mainz, S., Nordbrandt, M., & Turnbull-Dugarte, S. J. (2025). A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe? Journal of European Public Policy, 1–18. doi:10.1080/13501763.2025.2571062