Skip to content

Press release -

UCDP: Number of deaths in armed conflicts has doubled

At least 237,000 people died in organised violence in 2022. A new report from Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) at Uppsala University shows that this is a 97 per cent increase compared with the previous year, and the highest number since the Rwandan genocide in 1994.

“We see this increase despite considerable de-escalation in the two deadliest conflicts of 2021; Yemen and Afghanistan. Instead, violence in Ethiopia and Ukraine escalated drastically,” says Shawn Davies, Senior Analyst at UCDP.

Together, the wars in Ethiopia and Ukraine resulted in at least 180,000 battle-related deaths in 2022. This is a low estimate as information from these conflicts is scarce and subject to extensive propaganda. The numbers are likely to be significantly revised as more information becomes available. Even so, the data shows that more people died in those two conflicts in 2022 than in the whole world the year before.

“A common perception is that Russia’s war in Ukraine was the bloodiest conflict in 2022, but in fact, more people died in Ethiopia where the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has fought the Ethiopian army, the latter supported by Eritrea, since late 2020,” says Davies.

In both Ethiopia and Ukraine, fighting has been characterised by trench warfare, with warring parties being accused of using human wave tactics. This type of warfare has contributed to the high casualty numbers.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is the first large-scale interstate war in 20 years. Even if conflicts between states remain a relatively rare occurrence, they have increased in recent years.

“It has also become more common for external states to send troop support to rebel groups fighting against other governments, which essentially means that state armies are fighting each other,” says Therese Pettersson, Project Leader at UCDP.

The number of active conflicts in the world remains at a historically high level. UCDP registered 55 different conflicts where a state was involved on one or both sides during 2022. In contrast, between 31 and 39 such conflicts were registered yearly between 2000 and 2013, whilst the annual number has varied between 52 and 56 from 2015 onwards.

“Albeit most conflicts are small, the number of wars increased from five in 2021 to eight in 2022. Conflicts causing at least 1,000 battle-related deaths during one calendar year are considered wars,” Pettersson clarifies.

The number of non-state conflicts, where rebel groups or other armed organised actors fight each other, also remains on a record high level. UCDP registered 82 such conflicts in 2022. Nine of the ten deadliest non-state conflicts of the year occurred in Mexico where rival drug cartels have fought each other over turf since the 1980s. Gang-related violence has also escalated in Brazil, Haiti, Honduras and El Salvador in recent years.

Furthermore, so-called one-sided violence, where civilians are the target, increased in 2022. At least 11,800 civilians were killed in this type of intentional, targeted violence, carried out by 45 different states or organised groups. The actor killing most civilians in one-sided violence was the Islamic State (IS), but states also attacked civilians on a large scale in several conflicts. Russia and Eritrea both used extensive violence against civilians in the wars in Ukraine and Ethiopia.

The results presented in the press release will be published in the July issue of the Journal of Peace Research.

For more information, please contact:

Shawn Davies, Senior Analyst at UCDP, Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, shawn.davies@pcr.uu.se, 070 – 404 95 09

Therese Pettersson, Project Leader at UCDP, Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, therese.pettersson@pcr.uu.se, tel: 070 – 649 64 91

Magnus Öberg, Associate Professor, Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, magnus.oberg@pcr.uu.se, 070 – 167 90 86

About UCDP

The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) is the world’s main provider of data on organised violence and the oldest ongoing data collection project for civil war, with a history of almost 40 years. Its definition of armed conflict has become the global standard of how conflicts are systematically defined and studied.

Related links

Topics

Categories


Founded in 1477, Uppsala University is the oldest university in Sweden. With more than 50,000 students and 7,500 employees in Uppsala and Visby, we are a broad university with research in social sciences, humanities, technology, natural sciences, medicine and pharmacology. Our mission is to conduct education and research of the highest quality and relevance to society on a long-term basis. Uppsala University is regularly ranked among the world’s top universities. www.uu.se

Contacts

  • Therese Pettersson, projektledare vid Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP, Uppsala universitet.
    Therese Pettersson, projektledare vid Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP, Uppsala universitet.
    License:
    Media Use
    File format:
    .jpg
    Size:
    5262 x 3508, 2.43 MB
    Download

Related content

  • UCDP: fatalities in organised violence still decreasing

    ​New data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Uppsala University shows that the number of fatalities in organised violence decreased for the third consecutive year. In 2017, almost 90,000 deaths were recorded by UCDP, a decrease of 32% compared to the latest peak in 2014. The most significant drop took place in Syria.

  • ​UCDP peace researchers: Was 2017 the end of IS?

    When peace researchers at Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) summarize the conflict situation for the world in 2017, much focus is on the so-called Islamic State, IS. During the year, both Iraq and Syria claimed that IS had been defeated. Does the weakening of IS mean that the trend of large numbers of battle-related deaths in the world is ending?

  • Downward trend broken in 2020 – fatalities in organised violence increase again

    New data from Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), at Uppsala University, show that the total number of fatalities stemming from organised violence increased in 2020, after five consecutive years of falling numbers. Despite a substantial decrease in violence in the two biggest wars of the 2010s, Afghanistan and Syria, UCDP registered more than 80,100 deaths in organised violence in 2020.

  • Increasing levels of violence in Africa – peace researchers worried by recent trend

    New data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Uppsala University, shows that the number of fatalities in organised violence continues to decrease. The declared defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq has pushed the number of fatalities to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. However, peace researchers are worried about recent trends in Africa.

  • Professor Karen Brounéus, Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Photo: Chris Chau

    Women vulnerable in peace processes

    New research: Post-war peace processes are a dangerous period for women, who are forced to live close to men who committed serious abuse during the war, which can be stigmatising. Women safety is not a political priority after war. There is great potential for improvement, if the UN were to start making more space for women’s perspectives, writes peace- and conflict researchers in PLOS One.

  • Painting of Ivan the Terrible, by Viktor Vasnetsov (1848-1926). Tretyakov Gallery. Rights: Public Domain

    Should we stop saying ‘Russia’?

    Should the world stop using the name ‘Russia’ and go back to the old name ‘Muscovy’? The question has been raised by critics of Russia in recent years and in his new book “Russia reverts to Muscovy”, Stefan Hedlund, Professor Emeritus of East European Studies, highlights several arguments in favour of a change of name.

  • UCDP: record number of armed conflicts in the world

    UCDP: record number of armed conflicts in the world

    Never before have there been so many armed conflicts across the globe. This has been shown by new statistics from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP, at Uppsala University. In 2023, the number of conflicts involving states totalled 59, the highest number ever since the data collection’s starting point in 1946. Previous peaks were seen in 2020 and 2022, each with 56 conflicts.