Navigating uncertainties: Reflections on how Nordic Firms best position themselves in the new world order

In many ways, the results of the US presidential election can be seen yet another step towards a new world order that is considerably different from what was expected just six months ago. Old alliances are breaking up, new collaborations are taking shape and many international agreements on trade, tariffs, access to raw materials and security are changing.

At the same time, the EU's largest economy, Germany, is undergoing major political changes, while at the European level huge investments in defense have been announced. In parallel, other key European players such as France and the United Kingdom are working to find their place – both internally in Europe but also in the new international political landscape.

Nordic companies —known to be both innovative, stable and agile — stand at a crossroad. From tightening EU-China relations and tariffs to disrupted global supply chains and growing security concerns across the continent, the risk landscape has become a lot more volatile than what we have been used to during the last 80 years.

A New Era of Trade Realignment
Trade is recalibrating rapidly, and the era of globalization seems to be ending, and we could enter a period of regional fragmentation and increased political polarization as pointed out by the Danish National Bank in a recent publication[1]. As part of this recalibration The European Union has increased its focus on Chinese imports and proposed tariffs on green tech and critical infrastructure, which signals a clear shift in the direction of a more regionalized world order.

Another aspect of the recalibration of trade is that the Chinese exporters are likely to look for alternatives to the massive American market. Nordic companies should include this in their strategic planning and prepare for potentially drastic changes in key markets within very short time periods.

Yet these changes can also be an opportunity for developing competitive advantages. Focusing on key differentiators like quality, sustainability, ethics, design and security will be important differentiators going forward.

Supply Chains: Bringing them closer
Recent events like the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine has demonstrated that our dependencies on a free and rule based global trade system is crucial to our economies. In these volatile times having the means and capabilities to utilize the changing flows can prove to be a key differentiator.

Nordic firms have an opportunity to lead in this space. The Nordics have highly digitized logistics setups and providers that can support an agile and efficient approach to recalibrating complex global supply chains. There is also a strong push for moving critical suppliers closer to home or to trusted partners within the EU (near-shoring or friend-shoring) or at least diversifying away from single-country dependencies.

In this new era, it is key to have supply chain transparency, focus on circular production and resource autonomy as well as being able to track key assets. Nordic companies are well positioned to take advantage of opportunities within AI-driven logistics, flexible product design, and leverage the push for EU-based supply autonomy.

Security and Infrastructure: Another focus area
A key focus in this new world order is security – from securing critical infrastructure to ensuring access to key resources, raw materials and technologies. The complexity of the security landscape is growing more complex day by day and new vulnerabilities are showing up regularly.

Nordic countries, with their strong governance structures, and deep integration into society are well-positioned to be relevant partners for public and private stakeholders throughout Europe to support the push towards strategic autonomy and increased resilience.

It is therefore important that Nordic companies stay updated on policy changes, changing financial dynamics and major risk events to position themselves as key contributors and trusted partners.

Time for action is now
Nordic companies can take advantage of the shifting landscape and three of the focus areas helping this could be:

Value-based approach: High ethics and focus on sustainability, since competing with the high-volume output of China is not realistic. But focusing on Nordic values like sustainability, human rights and transparency will increasingly align with both EU policy and consumer demand.

Supply chain resilience: Keep investing in supply chain resilience with a focus on vertical integration, trusted (and increased) regional partnerships as well as dual sourcing of strategic resources and raw materials.

Innovation: Innovate beyond the product and focus on areas like customer experience, the Nordic service models, and smart digital ecosystems which can be as crucial as the product itself.

As geopolitical tension could continue for a longer period and a roll-back of globalization seems to be in the making, Nordic companies must abandon assumptions of stability and keep pushing for ever more agility. In doing so, they will not only shield themselves from the turmoil, but they can also find ways to exploit opportunities as they emerge and build upon some of the strongpoints that the Nordics already have.

Additional information
For further information on the challenges ahead and strategies to navigate in the new world order:

Aon (2025) Client Alert: Key Strategies for Businesses Navigating Tariff Impacts: Client Alert: Key Strategies for Businesses Navigating Tariff Impacts

Aon (2025) US Presidential Election - What businesses should consider: US Presidential Election - What businesses should consider | Aon Denmark