Restructuring Study 2026: Stagnation fuels caseloads – AI set to accelerate turnarounds

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• Stagnation is becoming the new reality: 65 percent of study participants expect economic output to remain unchanged, while 29 percent anticipate a decline in gross domestic product – only 6 percent expect growth.
• Restructuring pressure is rising significantly: 83 percent are seeing an increase in cases, with the automotive industry continuing to face the greatest need for transformation at 87 percent.
• AI promises speed but is barely embedded: 74 percent expect faster diagnosis and implementation, yet 45 percent report only pilot projects to date, and no respondent reports widespread use.

Munich, September 2026: The German economy is experiencing a period of persistent structural weakness – and the pressure on companies continues to mount. This is revealed by Roland Berger’s new Restructuring Study, for which 130 experts from German-speaking countries were surveyed. Nearly two-thirds of the restructuring experts expect economic output to remain unchanged over the next twelve months, while a further 29 percent anticipate a decline in gross domestic product. Only 6 percent expect growth.

The pressures are manifold: 65 percent of respondents cite bureaucracy and regulation as a particular risk to the German economy. Energy prices and security of supply follow at 53 percent – an increase of 22 percentage points year on year. Geopolitical tensions and technological change are each viewed as key threats by 51 percent. At the same time, more than half of the experts consider German companies poorly prepared for a further economic downturn; only 8 percent rate them as well prepared.

Restructuring pressure rises – automotive industry remains under particular strain

The challenging environment is having a direct impact on restructuring activity: 83 percent of practitioners report an increase in cases. As many as 21 percent are seeing a sharp rise – more than twice as many as in the previous year. At the same time, 61 percent say that restructuring processes are taking longer, 56 percent report more complex financing structures and 42 percent more complex stakeholder structures. This makes consensual solutions more difficult, slower and more liquidity-intensive.

“In a period of persistent stagnation, simply holding out is no longer enough,” says Alexander Müller, Senior Partner at Roland Berger. “Companies must make the shift to decisive adaptation and, at the same time, use immediate crisis management as the starting point for the structural renewal they need.”

According to the experts, the automotive industry continues to face the greatest need for restructuring and transformation at 87 percent, followed by mechanical and plant engineering at 54 percent. The need for action is rising particularly sharply in pharmaceuticals, healthcare and hospitals, reaching 26 percent, and in the chemicals industry, at 31 percent. Transaction-based turnarounds are also gaining importance: 72 percent expect a moderate or strong increase in sales and other structural solutions.

Robust business and liquidity planning remains the most important success factor, cited by 61 percent. An ambitious yet realistic program of measures and targeted stakeholder communication are becoming markedly more important: Both have gained 11 percentage points year on year, reaching 38 percent and 32 percent respectively. Crisis diagnosis alone is therefore no longer sufficient – speed, alignment and consistent implementation are what count.

AI accelerates processes – people retain responsibility

Artificial intelligence opens up new opportunities to make restructuring processes more efficient. Eighty-nine percent see the greatest potential for support in data analysis, while 60 percent point to research. Seventy-four percent expect AI to enable faster diagnosis and implementation, and 65 percent anticipate lower process costs. By contrast, only 4 percent currently expect a higher implementation success rate – because judgment, trust, negotiation and leadership remain human responsibilities.

Actual use remains limited, however: No respondent considers AI to be widely embedded in restructuring processes yet. Forty-five percent report individual pilot projects, 26 percent initial discussions, and a further 26 percent established applications in specific areas. The experts set clear guardrails for its use: 56 percent demand demonstrably high quality, 50 percent the highest levels of data security and confidentiality, and 49 percent full transparency.

“AI is changing the work of restructuring professionals, not their responsibility,” says Dr. Adrian Pielken, Senior Partner at Roland Berger. “It can analyze data faster and automate routine tasks. Companies and advisors must use the resulting headroom for communication, stakeholder management and implementation.”

For 89 percent, people will clearly retain the leading role in the future. Seventy-one percent favor a division of labor in which AI supplies data and automates routine tasks while people make the decisions. The study therefore serves as a wake-up call: Those who integrate AI now in a controlled, transparent and systematic way will gain time, experience and room for maneuver – in an environment where waiting is no longer an option.

About the study

Roland Berger’s Restructuring Study has been published since 2001 and regularly examines the industry’s most important developments. A total of 130 restructuring and transformation experts from German-speaking countries took part in the 2026 edition.