Decline in seafood exports in October despite record salmon performance

Norway exported seafood worth NOK 18.3 billion in October. This is a decrease of NOK 122 million, or 1 per cent, compared with the same month last year. Despite the decline, October was the second highest month for Norwegian seafood exports.

“The main reason for the decline in the value of seafood exports in October was a sharp fall in the export volume of mackerel and herring. Most other major species saw an increase in value in October. For salmon, there was an export record for a single month, both in terms of volume and value, in addition to an increase in value for cod, trout, saithe and haddock," says Christian Chramer, CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council.

Slower growth in exports to the USA

The largest markets for Norwegian seafood exports in October were Poland, the USA and the Netherlands.

“In recent years, the US has become an increasingly important market for Norwegian salmon, and in the first quarter of this year, as much as 11.5 per cent of all Norwegian salmon measured in value was exported to the US. In recent months, however, growth to the US has slowed. In the last three months, only 8 per cent of Norwegian salmon exports have gone to the US," explains Chramer.

Strong increase to China

“At the same time, exports to Asia have increased sharply. As much as 20 per cent of Norwegian salmon exports have gone to Asia in the last three months, up from 17 per cent in the same period last year. "Strong growth in demand in China, as well as tariffs on Norwegian salmon in the USA, have been some of the main drivers behind this development," says Chramer.

Largest growth for Poland in October

Poland had the highest value growth in October, with an increase in export value of NOK 456 million, or 23 per cent, compared with the same month last year. The export volume to Poland ended at 38,157 tonnes, which is 15 per cent higher than the same month last year.

Seafood exports have increased by NOK 6 billion

So far this year, Norway has exported seafood worth NOK 149 billion, an increase of 4.2 per cent from the same period last year. Poland, the USA and China are the largest markets for Norwegian seafood exports so far this year, and China is the largest growth market in terms of value.

“So far this year, seafood exports have increased by NOK 6 billion. The increase can mainly be attributed to a NOK 2.4 billion increase in the export value of salmon. In addition, snow crab contributed NOK 884 million, trout NOK 667 million, cod NOK 522 million, saithe NOK 518 million and haddock NOK 500 million," says Chramer.

Record high export value for salmon

• Norway exported 148,729 tonnes of salmon worth NOK 12.6 billion in October
• The value increased by NOK 816 million, or 7 per cent, compared with the same month last year
• This is a growth in volume of 4 per cent
• Poland, the USA and France were the largest markets for salmon in October

This is a record-high export value for salmon in a single month, NOK 696 million higher than the previous record month, which was in November 2024.

"Asia has increased its share of Norwegian salmon exports throughout 2025, and October also follows this trend," says Paul T Aandahl, Seafood Analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

"The reasons are complex, including increased demand, increased availability of large salmon and customs duties in the USA, which are helping to shift the flow of goods towards Asia. And it's not just China that is increasing," says Aandahl.

"In October, we saw an increase in value to Japan of 10 per cent, Thailand up 46 per cent and Taiwan up 61 per cent.

China leads in value growth

China had the highest value growth in October, with an increase in export value of NOK 332 million, or 92 per cent, compared with the same month last year. The export volume to China ended at 7,628 tonnes, which is 99 per cent higher than the same month last year.

In China, Norwegian salmon has faced increased competition from other nations such as Chile and Australia in recent months. The Chinese salmon market has experienced very strong growth this year and has grown by 44 per cent as of the third quarter. At the same time as the category growth, the Norwegian market share has increased compared to last year," says Sigmund Bjørgo, the Norwegian Seafood Council's envoy to China.

Trout export price surpasses salmon

• Norway exported 8,306 tonnes of trout worth NOK 712 million in October
• The value increased by NOK 98 million, or 16 per cent, compared with the same month last year
• This is a growth in volume of 18 per cent
• The USA, Poland and Ukraine were the largest markets for trout in October

Poland had the highest value growth in October, with an increase in export value of NOK 68 million, or 295 per cent, compared with the same month last year. The export volume to Poland ended at 1,134 tonnes, which is 290 per cent higher than the same month last year.

"With an average monthly price for fresh whole trout of NOK 80.09, the trout price surpassed the salmon price for the first time since October last year," says Seafood Analyst Paul Aandahl of the Norwegian Seafood Council.

“The biggest growth market for trout was Poland. We are seeing growth in both consumption and exports from Poland this year," says Aandahl.

Value and volume growth for fresh cod

• Norway exported 2,626 tonnes of fresh cod with a value of NOK 202 million in October
• The value increased by NOK 85 million, or 73 per cent, compared with the same month last year
• This is a growth in volume of 46 per cent
• Denmark, the Netherlands and Poland were the largest markets for fresh cod in October

Higher landings contributed to export growth in October. For fresh wild cod, the export volume increased by 49 per cent to 1,135 tonnes, while the export value increased by 79 per cent to NOK 93 million.

For fresh farmed cod, the export volume increased by 44 per cent to 1,491 tonnes, while the export value increased by 68 per cent to NOK 109 million. Farmed cod accounted for 54 per cent of the export value of fresh cod.

“All three of the largest markets for fresh cod in October are typical transit and processing markets, where the majority is re-exported to other markets. Poland was the market with the highest value growth in October, with an increase in export value of NOK 28 million compared with the same month last year. The export volume to Poland ended at 400 tonnes, compared with only 6 tonnes in October last year," says Seafood Analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan of the Norwegian Seafood Council.

Frozen cod: lower volume, higher value – Vietnam leads exports

• Norway exported 2,960 tonnes of frozen cod with a value of NOK 277 million in October
• The value increased by NOK 26 million, or 10 per cent, compared with the same month last year
• Volume fell by 10 per cent
• Vietnam, the UK and China were the largest markets for frozen cod in October

For the second month in a row, Vietnam is our largest market for frozen cod. Vietnam is also the market with the highest value growth in October, with an increase in export value of NOK 83 million, or 411 per cent, compared with the same month last year. The export volume to Vietnam ended at 1,182 tonnes, which is 287 per cent higher than the same month last year.

Vietnam is primarily a processing market, and most of the product is processed and re-exported as fillets to Europe and the USA.

“The reason for the strong growth in Vietnam can probably be attributed mainly to the USA's high tariffs against China. Both China and Vietnam export a lot of frozen cod fillets to the USA, and the tariffs for imports from Vietnam to the USA have been lower than for imports from China for several months. This has helped to make Vietnam more competitive as a producer for the US market, and increased Vietnam's demand for Norwegian cod to produce frozen cod fillets," says Seafood Analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan of the Norwegian Seafood Council.

“Last week, however, a reduction in tariffs on imports to the US from China was announced. This could result in a shift in favour of China, at the expense of Vietnam, as a destination market for Norwegian frozen cod in the future," says Brækkan.

Clipfish exports reach record-high value

• Norway exported 8,463 tonnes of clipfish worth NOK 959 million in October
• The value increased by NOK 154 million, or 19 per cent, compared with the same month last year
• The volume fell by 12 per cent
• Portugal, Brazil and Congo-Brazzaville were the largest markets for clipfish in October

"There was a record-high export value for clipfish in October, NOK 92 million above the previous record month, which was in September 2025," says Brækkan.

"For saithe clipfish, the export volume fell by 21 per cent to 3,664 tonnes, while the export value increased by 15 per cent to NOK 251 million. For clipfish from cod, the export volume increased by 1 per cent to 3,790 tonnes, while the export value increased by 24 per cent to NOK 635 million.

Portugal had the highest value growth in October, with an increase in export value of NOK 163 million, or 42 per cent, compared with the same month last year. The export volume to Portugal ended at 3,326 tonnes, which is 17 per cent higher than the same month last year.

“Lower cod quotas and difficult saithe fishing have contributed to higher landing prices for cod and saithe this year. This has resulted in higher export prices for clipfish and contributed to a record-high export value for clipfish in October, for the second month in a row," explains Brækkan.

"Although this shows that demand for Norwegian clipfish is strong, it is also a symptom of the challenges currently facing the value chain both in Norway and abroad. With less raw material and clipfish available at ever higher prices, we are facing a decline in consumption in our most traditional clipfish markets," emphasises Brækkan.

Strong growth for salted fish in Portugal

• Norway exported 2,165 tonnes of salted fish with a value of NOK 259 million in October
• The value increased by NOK 90 million, or 53 per cent, compared with the same month last year
• This is a growth in volume of 23 per cent
• Portugal, Italy and Greece were the largest markets for salted fish in October

Our largest market for salted fish, Portugal, had the highest value growth in October, with an increase in export value of NOK 98 million, or 96 per cent, compared with the same month last year. The export volume to Portugal ended at 1,548 tonnes, which is 85 per cent higher than the same month last year.

Salted cod, which accounts for more than 80 per cent of salted fish exports, has developed more strongly than other wild cod products this year. While the export volume of all cod in total has fallen 17 per cent so far this year, the export volume of salted whole cod has only fallen 4 per cent. All other wild cod products have seen a decline in export volumes of at least ten per cent.

“The main reason for the relatively strong development for salted whole cod is solid demand in Portugal. The processing industry in Portugal uses salted fish from Norway to produce both traditional clipfish and frozen diluted clipfish," says Brækkan.

"The market for diluted frozen clipfish is showing clear growth, driven by increasing demand for products that combine affordability with high convenience. More consumers are opting for pot-ready products that require minimal cooking time, which is reflected in the sales trend. The segment is dominated by the chains' own brands and established Portuguese producers, who have succeeded in offering products adapted to consumer needs," says Gudfinna Traustadottir, the Norwegian Seafood Council's envoy to Portugal.

Stockfish exports show value growth

• Norway exported 396 tonnes of stockfish with a value of NOK 145 million in October
• The value increased by NOK 31 million, or 28 per cent, compared with the same month last year
• Volume fell by 6 per cent
• Italy, Croatia and the USA were the largest markets for stockfish in October

Our largest stockfish market, Italy, saw the greatest growth in value in October, with an increase in export value of NOK 36 million, or 51 per cent, compared with the same month last year. The export volume to Italy ended at 252 tonnes, which is 16 per cent higher than the same month last year. All stockfish exported to Italy in October was cod.

Overall, the export volume for all cod stockfish increased by 6 per cent in September to a total of 342 tonnes. Export value increased by 32 per cent to NOK 139 million. So far this year, however, the export volume for cod stockfish is down 18 per cent, driven by lower quotas and a decline in stockfish production.

“The export price for cod stockfish increased by 24 per cent compared with the same month last year, and for the first time exceeded NOK 400 in a single month. The increased export price indicates that the new price level has begun to take hold in the market, in a season that has been characterised by significantly higher raw material prices," explains Brækkan.

Temporary decline in herring exports

• Norway exported 16,796 tonnes of herring worth NOK 381 million in October
• The value fell by NOK 152 million, or 28 per cent, compared with the same month last year
• Volume fell by 38 per cent
• Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania were the largest markets for herring in October

“We must go back to 2015 to find a lower export volume of herring in the month of October. The low volume is due to a late start to the autumn season for NVG herring. With good fishing towards the end of the month and a higher quota than last year, we expect exports to pick up in the coming months," says Jan Eirik Johnsen, head of pelagic fish at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

“With a sharp decline in export volumes in October, fillet products dominated, with the markets of Poland, Lithuania and Germany leading the way. Exports of whole frozen herring and marinated products fell significantly compared with October last year," says Johnsen.

Sharp decline in mackerel exports - outlook remains challenging

• Norway exported 27,150 tonnes of mackerel worth NOK 1.3 billion in October
• The value fell by NOK 1.2 billion, or 47 per cent, compared with the same month last year
• Volume fell by 71 per cent
• South Korea, Japan and Vietnam were the largest markets for mackerel in October

"The sharp decline in mackerel exports in October reflects the fact that the fishery slowed down considerably as early as mid-September, compared with last year when a significantly larger quota was fished throughout October," explains Johnsen.

"In addition to the decline in volume, there was a significant increase in the price of mackerel. With the prospect of a very low quota next year, prices continued to rise in October, and the average price to the fisherman was NOK 47.16 per kg, compared with NOK 23.84 per kg for the same month last year.

“There is a lag in export prices, which for whole frozen mackerel under 600 grams reached an average of NOK 48.34 per kg in October. In some weeks in October, we have seen prices to individual markets far above NOK 53 per kg" says Jan Eirik Johnsen, head of pelagic fish at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

"We're in a period where demand far exceeds supply, and with the expectation that it will get even worse. There are warning signals coming all the way from the industry in Norway to customers out in the markets. Many people are wondering how this will affect the market when fish purchased from fishermen for around NOK 50 reaches consumers," continues Johnsen.

"The big question in the industry now is what the coastal states will come up with in their negotiations. Will there finally be a comprehensive agreement between all the coastal states that also involves a distribution of the total quota? Either way, the industry both at home and abroad is facing a tough period with low mackerel volumes and a price level that was unimaginable only a short time ago," Johnsen concludes.

Decline for king crab - USA remains largest market for frozen products

• Norway exported 109 tonnes of king crab worth NOK 77 million in October
• The value fell by NOK 2 million, or 2 per cent, compared with the same month last year
• Volume fell by 21 per cent
• The United States, Italy and Canada were the largest markets for king crab in October

Exports of frozen king crab grew strongly in September, but lower landings in October led to a slight decline in volume this month.

“The USA is still the largest market for frozen king crab, even though the Alaskan red king crab season started in October. The USA was also the largest growth market in October, with an increase in export value of NOK 8 million - equivalent to 16 per cent - compared with the same month last year. The export volume to the USA ended at 82 tonnes, which is 3 per cent lower than in October last year. "The decline is mainly due to reduced exports of live crab," explains Josefine Voraa, Head of Shellfish at the Norwegian Seafood Council.

In addition to exports to the USA, some frozen and live king crab was sent to European markets ahead of the Christmas season.

Increased but limited exports of snow crab

• Norway exported 61 tonnes of snow crab with a value of NOK 12 million in October
• The value increased by NOK 11 million, or 942 per cent, compared with the same month last year
• This is a growth in volume of 615 per cent
• Canada, Vietnam and Japan were the largest markets for snow crab in October

“While waiting for the snow crab fishery to resume in December, only limited volumes are being exported. Canada was the largest market in October and accounted for the largest value growth, with an export value of NOK 5 million - compared with nothing in the same month last year. The export volume ended at 24 tonnes," says Voraa.

Decline for prawn exports in October

• Norway exported 2,620 tonnes of prawns worth NOK 158 million in October
• The value fell by NOK 25 million, or 14 per cent, compared with the same month last year
• Volume fell by 31 per cent
• Iceland, China and Denmark were the largest markets for prawns in October

“Weaker landings in the prawn fishery in the Barents Sea this year, compared with a strong prawn fishery in 2024, are now affecting prawn exports for October, with a decline in the largest frozen prawn products,” explains Voraa.

“Frozen cooked shell prawns have seen the biggest volume decline after high export levels earlier this year. The decline in October is particularly evident in exports to Denmark and Morocco, while China continues to grow for both frozen cooked shell-on prawns and raw frozen edible prawns - up 43 per cent in volume and 105 per cent in value from October last year, with 515 tonnes exported”.

Exports of frozen raw prawns to the industry in Iceland are down 47 per cent compared with October last year and account for the largest volume decline to a single market.

“For frozen peeled prawns, exports to our two most important markets - the UK and Sweden - fell by 35 and 16 per cent respectively in October compared with October last year. So far this year, however, exports to Sweden have fallen by only 5 per cent, while exports to the UK have increased by 31 per cent,” says Voraa.